Mock drafts sharpen around Fernando Mendoza as 2026 NFL Draft nears

Fernando Mendoza has become the overwhelming favorite to go No. 1 overall to the Las Vegas Raiders, and the latest mock drafts say as much about the league’s appetite for quarterbacks as they do about one player. Multiple projections now line up around Mendoza, the Indiana quarterback who led the Hoosiers to their first college football national title before announcing he would enter the 2026 NFL Draft.

That convergence matters because the Raiders are still chasing a long-term answer. Las Vegas has not taken a quarterback in the first round since JaMarcus Russell in 2007, and Geno Smith’s league-high 17 interceptions in 2025 only sharpened the need. The Raiders enter the draft with a new regime in place, coach Klint Kubiak and second-year general manager John Spytek, and the top pick has become the cleanest route to reset the position.

The 2026 NFL Draft opens Thursday in Pittsburgh, the first time the city has hosted it since 1948. The league has 257 total picks spread across seven rounds from April 23 through April 25, with Round 1 set for Thursday, the second and third rounds on Friday, and the final four rounds on Saturday. The first three selections belong to the Raiders, New York Jets and Arizona Cardinals, while the Bengals’ trade of the No. 10 pick to the Giants left six teams holding two first-round choices.

That draft order helps explain why the quarterback board has become the league’s most watched storyline. ESPN’s quarterback-focused mock listed nine draftable passers, a sign that the position is deeper than the old top-heavy classes but not deep enough to settle the debate. PFF’s predictive board placed Ty Simpson, Garrett Nussmeier, Drew Allar, Carson Beck and Cade Klubnik behind Mendoza, reinforcing the view that the class has real names, but not many sure things.

The Jets at No. 2 remain part of the quarterback conversation after starting three different quarterbacks in 2025 and ranking 29th in offensive EPA. Arizona at No. 3 also sits in uncertainty because of Kyler Murray’s status. That uncertainty, more than any individual mock slot, is what gives the class its urgency: multiple teams still need a path out of instability, and the draft’s first round may be where that search begins.

Mendoza’s profile has only intensified the attention. ESPN noted that Las Vegas’s offense under Kubiak leans heavily on under-center and play-action concepts, while Mendoza’s college tape included very limited under-center work, a schematic concern some analysts have treated as overstated. NFL.com also reported that Raiders minority owner Tom Brady has been discussed as a mentoring presence for Mendoza, another sign of how much weight Las Vegas is putting on the position. The final question is no longer whether Mendoza leads this draft, but whether another quarterback joins him in Round 1.