NC Senate District 26 Primary Hinges on Provisional Ballots After Two-Vote Margin

Sam Page, the Rockingham County sheriff, held a two-vote lead over incumbent state senator Phil Berger in the March 3 Republican primary for North Carolina Senate District 26, but 189 provisional ballots across the district could flip the result. The New York Times live results feed at 11:16 PM ET showed Page with 13,077 votes to Berger’s 13,075, out of 26,152 reported votes and more than 95 percent of ballots in.

County subtotals in the NYTimes feed showed the split that produced the razor margin: Rockingham County reported 13,509 votes with Page ahead by 33, while Guilford County reported 12,643 votes with Berger ahead by 36. The NYTimes also noted vote-method breakdowns that do not include provisional ballots: Election Day in-person ballots favored Berger by seven points and represented roughly 55 percent of votes so far; early in-person ballots favored Page by eight points and made up about 44 percent; mail ballots favored Berger by five points but represented under 1 percent.

Local election offices say provisional ballots remain to be reviewed before a final outcome can be certified. Rockingham County reported 137 provisional ballots for this race and Guilford County reported 52, for a combined 189 outstanding provisional ballots. Rockingham County Board of Elections staff told WGHP they will livestream their provisional ballot verification session on Friday, and Don Powell, chairman of the Rockingham County Board of Elections, said: “We have one of the hottest Senate races in the state right here in Rockingham and Guilford County.”

Election officials and state sources described how provisional ballots are handled and validated. WGHP and Yahoo explained: “For example, if someone showed up to vote but didn’t have their ID on them, those people have the opportunity to bring their ID to their county’s election office by Friday at noon to prove their vote is valid. But without confirmation, their provisional ballot can’t be counted.” WFMY reported Berger acknowledged those ballots could ultimately decide the race.

Guilford County election lead Charlie Collicutt stressed the local significance and outlined the recount mechanics if the race triggers one. Collicutt said, “When you get a tight race like this, it just shows that these votes do matter and these primaries matter and this is close.” He told WGHP that recounts, if necessary, involve running all involved ballots through “our high-speed tabulators, and then we go on to … hand counting of some of those ballots and seeing how those results start to shake out.” Collicutt estimated his understanding is that recounts would be done by March 25, barring any unforeseen issues.

Political analysts and campaign friction underscore the uncertainty. Wake Forest politics professor John Dinan warned, “It’s always tempting for the one candidate even ahead by two votes to say it’s over … We know it’s not over at all, and it is any possibility that either Berger or Page could win this, … the outcome is still far from being determined,” and a republished Yahoo headline attributed the line “I won’t let anyone steal this election” to Sam Page while saying he raised concerns about a Rockingham County BOE office closure.

The immediate calendar is clear: provisional voters have until Friday at noon to provide required verification, Rockingham County will livestream its verification session, and county boards will finish review before any recount mechanics described by Collicutt could begin. The nomination for the District 26 Republican primary will hinge on those validation outcomes and any recount completed by the timeline officials described.