New Jersey special election could narrow Republicans’ House edge

A special election in northern New Jersey on Thursday is shaping up as more than a local race. In a district that has drifted toward Democrats, the contest for New Jersey’s 11th Congressional District could narrow Republicans’ grip on the U.S. House and offer an early read on suburban turnout, voter fatigue and the national mood heading into the November midterms.

Democrat Analilia Mejia, a former national political director for Bernie Sanders’ 2020 presidential campaign, faced Republican Joe Hathaway, a Randolph Township Council member, in a district that has become increasingly competitive after years as a Republican stronghold. The seat opened after Mikie Sherrill won New Jersey’s governor’s race on Nov. 4, 2025, and resigned from Congress on Nov. 20. Gov. Phil Murphy set the special primary for Feb. 5 and the special general election for April 16, with the winner serving only the rest of the term until Jan. 3, 2027.

The race carried outsized meaning because House margins remain tight. Even a single seat can matter in a closely divided chamber, and both parties have treated the contest as a test case for the broader political climate. If Democrats run strongly, they will argue that opposition to President Donald Trump remains potent in suburban districts. If Republicans hold the seat comfortably, they will say their coalition is still intact despite the volatility of the moment.

Turnout has been the key variable. About 33,000 people had already voted by last week, underscoring how much the result could hinge on who actually shows up in a lower-profile election. Special elections often reward the side with the sharper field operation, and both parties have looked at this one as a measure of organizational strength as much as persuasion. Polls closed at 8 p.m. ET.

NJ-11 includes parts of Essex, Morris and Passaic counties and is centered in Morris County. The Cook Political Report rates it Solid D with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+5, but recent elections have shown why Republicans still see opportunity and Democrats see an opening. Sherrill won reelection to the House in 2024 by nearly 15 percentage points, Kamala Harris carried the district by nearly 9 points in 2024, and Sherrill later defeated Jack Ciattarelli in the 2025 governor’s race, 56.9% to 42.5%.

Mejia emerged from a crowded 11-candidate Democratic primary and won backing from major labor groups, including the New Jersey Education Association, the New Jersey State AFL-CIO, CWA District 1, the Eastern Atlantic States Regional Council of Carpenters, RWDSU and National Nurses United. Hathaway ran unopposed in the Republican primary and has drawn endorsements from local and county Republican officials, along with some former Democratic officials. The result will not decide control of Congress, but in a year of narrow margins, it could still signal how durable the GOP’s edge looks heading into November.