NOAA forecasts below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, 8 to 14 storms

The message for coastal residents, insurers, utilities and local governments is simple: do not let a below-normal forecast lower the guard. NOAA said the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is likely to be quieter than the past two years, but it still expects 8 to 14 named storms, 3 to 6 hurricanes and 1 to 3 major hurricanes, enough to threaten communities from the North Atlantic Ocean to the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America.

NOAA announced the outlook on Thursday, May 21, at its Aircraft Operations Center in Lakeland, Florida, and virtually. The agency put the odds of a below-normal season at 55%, compared with 35% for a near-normal season and 10% for an above-normal one. Forecasters said they have 70% confidence in the ranges for named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes. The season officially runs from June 1 through November 30.

The forecast was produced by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center with help from the National Hurricane Center and the Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory. NOAA said a developing El Niño is expected to suppress tropical activity across the basin, a key reason the outlook is calmer than recent years. Even so, NOAA and the National Hurricane Center continue to stress that seasonal forecasts are not landfall forecasts and that it takes only one storm to produce major damage.

That warning carries practical weight for budgets and readiness. A weaker season can still bring a catastrophic hit if a storm tracks toward a densely populated stretch of coast, and the work of preparation happens before the first named storm forms. Emergency managers are already operating with the season’s official start less than two weeks away, while the National Hurricane Center said as of May 21 that tropical cyclone formation was not expected in the Atlantic over the next seven days.

NOAA’s 2026 outlook also arrives alongside a series of forecast product changes. The National Hurricane Center is rolling out a redesigned cone graphic that will include inland tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings, after experimental testing in 2024 and 2025 showed strong user support for the addition. The center is also seeking feedback on an experimental cone graphic through November 30, 2026.

Compared with recent years, the 2026 season looks notably less active. NOAA’s 2025 outlook called for 13 to 19 named storms, 6 to 10 hurricanes and 3 to 5 major hurricanes, while its 2024 outlook projected 17 to 25 named storms, 8 to 13 hurricanes and 4 to 7 major hurricanes. Atlantic storm names follow a six-year rotation, so the 2026 list will be reused in 2032 unless a name is retired.

For households and officials alike, the takeaway is not to focus on the season total alone. NOAA’s numbers point to a quieter basin, but the agency’s own warning remains the most important one: one storm is enough to reshape a season, a budget and a coastline.