Oil Edges Up After Surprise U.S. Draw as Venezuela Policy Looms

Oil prices ticked higher on Thursday following a bigger-than-expected weekly draw in U.S. crude stocks, but a cluster of countervailing signals kept the rally muted. The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported crude inventories fell by 3.8 million barrels to 419.1 million barrels in the week ended Jan. 2, a surprise that prompted futures buying after two sessions in which both benchmarks had lost more than 1% per day.

Intraday snapshots showed Brent trading near $60.20-$60.38 a barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate around $56.21-$56.36 a barrel in different GMT-stamped quotes, roughly a 0.4-0.7% uptick from the previous close. The move reflected the immediate impact of the crude draw, which contrasted with consensus forecasts that ranged from a 447,000-barrel rise in one poll to expectations of a roughly 1.0-1.2 million-barrel draw in other polls and models.

The EIA release was otherwise mixed. Gasoline inventories climbed by 7.7 million barrels to a 10-month high while gasoline demand fell to 8.17 million barrels per day, a one-year low. Distillate stocks rose by 5.59 million barrels to a one-year high, and crude inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for WTI, increased by 728,000 barrels. Together, those readings suggest regional imbalances and soft demand for motor fuels even as headline crude tightened.

Market participants said the data reinforced a nuanced near-term view: the surprise crude draw offers temporary support, but large builds in refined products and rising storage at Cushing point to slackness in parts of the U.S. supply chain. Morgan Stanley analysts estimate a potential oil surplus of as much as 3 million barrels per day in the first half of 2026, a projection that has weighed on prices since late 2025 and argues for continued downside risk absent tighter supply.

Geopolitical developments have added episodic risk premiums. Unnamed top U.S. officials said Wednesday that the United States needs to control Venezuela’s oil sales and revenue "indefinitely" to stabilize that country’s economy and rebuild its oil sector, a stance that markets are watching for potential shifts in legal or logistical controls over Venezuelan crude flows. Separately, enforcement actions, including the seizure of a Russian-flagged oil tanker for alleged sanctions violations, have been cited by traders as incremental support to prices via higher perceived risks to supply.

Broader macro signals also matter. A rally in equities to record highs has lent some support to energy demand expectations, but the balance between temporary supply squeezes and an overarching 2026 surplus forecast is likely to leave prices rangebound. Traders and policy makers will be watching weekly EIA flows, refinery utilization and any concrete U.S. measures on Venezuelan oil for signs that the supply trajectory is shifting away from the surplus scenarios that currently dominate forecasts.