Poll of economists sees Mexico stuck on 1.3% growth in 2026

A poll of 29 economists conducted Jan. 12-16 projects Mexico’s economy will expand only 1.3% in 2026, signaling a continuation of a slow growth profile that poses near-term risks for markets and policy makers. The median forecast in the poll also put growth at 1.9% in 2027, a modest improvement from the 0.4% expansion projected for 2025 but far short of levels needed to drive faster job creation and fiscal repair.

Analysts point to a cluster of policy and external factors that compress activity. Chief among them is uncertainty over the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement review ahead of the July 1 deadline, and U.S. political rhetoric that has cast doubt on the deal’s future. At home, a suite of tariff and tax increases that took effect at the start of 2026 - including higher levies on imports from Asian countries without Mexican trade accords and steeper taxes on so-called health-harmful products - has raised near-term inflationary pressure and reduced consumer spending momentum. A broadly applied 13% increase in the minimum wage adds further cost pressure on firms and could weigh on formal-sector hiring.

Inflation trends have already influenced monetary policy signaling. With headline inflation elevated after the tax and tariff moves, poll respondents expected Mexico’s central bank to keep the benchmark rate at 7.00% through the first quarter of 2026 and to trim it by 50 basis points in the second quarter, leaving the policy rate around 6.50% thereafter. Bank of America analysts offer a somewhat different path, forecasting more gradual easing to about 6.0% by the end of 2026, a divergence that highlights uncertainty over inflation persistence and the timing of policy normalization.

Financial-market implications are material. Bank of America expects fiscal policy to move from a drag in 2025 to roughly neutral in 2026 after substantial consolidation last year, but it also projects the public sector borrowing requirement could widen to about 4.9% of GDP versus the government’s 4.1% target. That trajectory keeps sovereign rating risks on investors’ radar and reduces the peso’s carry appeal if rates are cut and USMCA risks persist. BofA projects USD/MXN near 19 by year-end 2026.

International institutions are converging on the subdued baseline. The World Bank’s latest Global Economic Prospects revised Mexico’s 2026 growth to 1.3%, down from 1.4% in October and from 1.6% a year earlier, citing the USMCA review and broader trade disruptions. The bank also trimmed its global growth outlook to 2.6% in 2026 and cut emerging market growth to 4.0%, underscoring weaker external demand for Mexico’s export complex.

Key near-term datapoints could recalibrate expectations. Preliminary official GDP data for 2025 are scheduled for release on Jan. 30 and will help determine the base for 2026 comparisons. Policymakers and markets will also be watching monthly inflation prints, the implementation of tariffs and taxes, and developments in the USMCA review process ahead of the July deadline. Together these factors will shape whether the modest recovery the poll anticipates can solidify or whether downside risks will keep Mexico on a restrained growth path.