Record-low Snowpack, Drought Threaten Early Severe Wildfire Season Across Four Corners

Colorado’s snowpack stood near 61% of median this winter and the state’s snow telemetry network, which dates back to about 1987, has ranked this season as the worst on record, setting off alarm bells for the Four Corners and southwest Colorado. The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Colorado Water Supply Outlook for February reports statewide reservoir storage at about 86% of median, down from 94% of median a year earlier, and warns that “it’s certainly not ideal to have low reservoir storage during these dry years.”

Local and federal drought measures show the dryness is concentrated where we recreate and recreate-from-home. The U.S. Drought Monitor identifies parts of Summit, Eagle, Pitkin, Lake and Park counties as experiencing exceptional drought, and most of northwest Colorado is listed in extreme or severe drought categories. The USDA outlook places the Laramie‑North Platte and Colorado Headwaters river basins among the lowest streamflow forecasts in the state, with basin projections at roughly 50% and 58% of normal respectively, signaling lower summer flows for rivers and irrigation systems.

Colorado Division of Fire Prevention and Control public information officer Tracy LeClair warned the state is facing heightened fire hazard, saying, “We really should be bracing for an unusually early and potentially severe fire season. Some of the conditions are worse than we saw in the big years, like 2012 and 2020, where we saw some of the largest fires and some of the most destructive fires in Colorado history.” LeClair also emphasized the role of snowpack as water storage: “The snowpack acts as a critical natural reservoir for moisture that we really need to accumulate throughout the winter and then melt slowly in the spring,” and added, “I think we’re going to see the snowpack melt off a lot sooner and potentially a lot faster because we’ve had extended warmer weather.” Postponed and canceled prescribed burns, including pile burns that require snow on the ground to burn safely, are already being reported by state fire agencies.

The regional picture aligns with a broader western pattern of heat and snow loss. NOAA data show more than 8,500 daily high temperature records broken or tied in the West since Dec. 1, and the National Snow and Ice Data Center counts normal snow cover near 460,000 square miles versus about 155,000 square miles this season. Daniel McEvoy of the Western Regional Climate Center noted a key mechanism linking those trends to wildfire risk: “Snow disappearing earlier than average leaves the ground exposed to warmer weather in the spring and summer, which dries soils and vegetation quicker.”

Forecasts point to persistent risk through spring. AccuWeather analysis warns that the Four Corners region and the adjacent Front Range and High Plains are expected to feature the highest spring wildfire risk, noting that “above-average temperatures and below-average precipitation are expected to persist across this region through much of spring.” AccuWeather adds that storms in March could help limit early-season fire risk, but drier conditions in April and May could allow fuels to dry earlier than the historical average.

The economic and recreational impacts are already visible. Ski visitation is down amid reports that ski resorts have struggled this season, and regional managers warn the lack of spring and summer snow could complicate water supplies and mountain-town economies. The USDA outlook concludes bluntly that “it would take consistent, record-breaking snowfall for the rest of the season to reach normal peak snowpack levels,” leaving land managers and outdoor communities across the Four Corners planning for an unusually early and potentially severe wildfire season.