Rivian raises 2026 delivery forecast on strong R2 demand

Rivian lifted its 2026 delivery forecast to 65,000 to 70,000 vehicles after stronger demand for its trucks, vans and the new R2 SUV gave the company more confidence heading into the second half of the year. The revision from 62,000 to 67,000 vehicles sent Rivian shares up more than 10% and sharpened the question now facing the company and the broader EV market: whether the strongest non-Tesla brands can move from survival mode to real scale.

The R2 is central to that bet. Rivian began public customer deliveries of the lower-priced SUV on June 9, after employee deliveries started in April, and said reservation holders were being invited on a rolling basis. The model is being built at Rivian’s Normal, Illinois manufacturing facility, where the company also produces its R1 vehicles and commercial vans. Rivian has said the Normal campus expansion for the R2 would add a new 1.1 million-square-foot building and lift planned capacity to 215,000 total units a year.

Rivian’s second-quarter deliveries rose more than 14% to 12,194 vehicles, well above Visible Alpha’s estimate of 10,518. In the first quarter, the company delivered 10,365 vehicles and produced 10,236, while reaffirming its original 2026 delivery range of 62,000 to 67,000 vehicles. To reach the midpoint of the new guidance, Rivian would need to deliver about 45,000 vehicles in the second half, a target that underlines how steep the ramp still is.

The company’s 2025 performance shows why the R2 matters so much. Rivian delivered 42,247 vehicles last year, below its earlier 2025 target of 46,000 to 51,000, and produced 42,284 vehicles. Analysts polled by Visible Alpha still expect 63,138 deliveries for 2026, so Rivian’s new forecast sits only modestly above Wall Street’s view even as it signals greater confidence in execution. Rivian has also said its software and services business contributed to gross profit in 2025, partly offsetting pressure on vehicle margins.

The broader backdrop remains uneven. Affordability is still a major hurdle for EV buyers after federal tax credits expired last year, and Rivian is trying to prove that a cheaper model can widen demand beyond its early adopters. If the R2 keeps building momentum, Rivian could show that a newer EV brand can scale beyond the niche that has defined much of the sector so far.