Russian Oil and Gas Receipts Seen Halving in December, Hitting Multi Year Low

Russia’s state oil and gas receipts are set to fall sharply in December to about 410 billion roubles, Reuters calculations published on December 12 show, a drop that would leave revenues at their weakest monthly level since August 2020 when receipts were 405 billion roubles. The estimated December take, roughly 5.17 to 5.2 billion dollars at current exchange rates, would be almost half the revenue collected in December 2024.

The deterioration is driven by a combination of lower crude prices, a firmer rouble, shrinking export volumes, widening discounts, and mounting operational strains on domestic infrastructure. The International Energy Agency reported Urals crude fell by 8.20 dollars to 43.52 dollars per barrel in November, and Reuters and market data showed further weakness in early December with Urals trading near 41 dollars per barrel. The Moscow Times noted the rouble price of Urals stood around 3,250 roubles per barrel, roughly 41.90 dollars, about a two and a half year low.

Exports also weakened. The IEA estimated Russia’s oil and fuel exports declined by about 400,000 barrels per day in November to roughly 6.9 million barrels per day, and export revenues from crude and refined products fell to 10.97 billion dollars in November, down 3.59 billion dollars year on year and the lowest since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Deepening discounts have eroded tax base and duties. Mineral extraction tax receipts fell about 36 percent while export duties were down nearly 40 percent, according to reporting that cited aggregated industry and official statistics. Economist Yegor Susin warned of a "significant shortfall," noting discounts could cost the budget roughly 300 billion roubles in November and December.

The Reuters calculations also point to a weakened full year outcome. Oil and gas income for 2025 is now expected to fall almost 25 percent to about 8.44 trillion roubles, below the Finance Ministry’s revised forecast of 8.65 trillion roubles and far short of an earlier projection of 10.94 trillion roubles. Year to date oil and gas income totaled about 8 trillion roubles in the first 11 months, down 2.3 trillion from the same period in 2024, with declines accelerating through the year from 14 percent in May to 20 percent in August and 22 percent by early December.

The fiscal implications are acute. Oil and gas revenues account for roughly a quarter of federal budget receipts, and the Finance Ministry has already revised the planned budget deficit from 1.2 trillion roubles to 5.7 trillion roubles. Analysts warn receipts could fall further in January if current price dynamics, discounts, and sanction related market disruptions persist. Operational risks are rising as well, with the IEA and Reuters pointing to an uptick in Ukrainian strikes on refineries and pipelines and to Western measures including US sanctions introduced in October targeting major producers, which have influenced buyer behaviour.

Markets reflect the strain. The US dollar traded at about 79.69 roubles on the Reuters snapshot this morning, with a five day decline of 0.57 percent. For policymakers, the revenue shock will complicate fiscal planning ahead of next year, underline the need for contingency borrowing or spending adjustments, and amplify long term concerns about reliance on hydrocarbon rents amid growing geopolitical and market pressures.