Russian war dead may top 350,000, new estimates suggest

Russia’s war dead may already exceed 350,000, a toll that points to a conflict in which both sides have likely lost close to half a million soldiers and Moscow has paid a steep price for small gains on the ground.

Mediazona and BBC Russian Service updated their probate-registry model on May 9, 2026, and put Russian military deaths at about 352,000 killed soldiers. The estimate covers male Russian citizens ages 18 to 59 who died from the start of the full-scale invasion through the end of 2025. It sits alongside Mediazona’s named count of 217,808 verified dead, a list that grew by 3,950 between April 23 and May 8. The outlets said the verified count is built from publicly available, verifiable sources and is not exhaustive. They also said they had confirmed 7,043 officer deaths by April 24.

The numbers matter because they show a war of attrition that has imposed extraordinary losses for limited territorial change. A CSIS report in June 2025 estimated that Russia had suffered more than 1 million military casualties overall, including about 250,000 killed, while advancing at an average pace of about 165 feet per day and capturing less than 1 percent of additional Ukrainian territory since January 2024. NBC News reported in January 2026 that CSIS put Russian casualties as high as 1.2 million, with as many as 325,000 killed.

The Ukrainian side has also borne catastrophic losses. NBC News said CSIS estimated Ukraine’s battlefield casualties at 500,000 to 600,000, including up to 140,000 deaths. In February 2025, Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Russia had lost roughly 300,000 to 350,000 killed, plus 50,000 to 70,000 missing and 600,000 to 700,000 wounded. He said Ukraine had lost more than 45,000 soldiers killed and around 380,000 wounded.

Taken together, the estimates suggest a war whose human cost is now large enough to shape strategy as much as tactics. A death toll in the 350,000 range means Russia’s manpower pipeline, officer corps and domestic tolerance for a prolonged fight are all under strain, even as Kremlin claims of eventual victory remain intact. The contested body counts do not settle the war’s politics, but they do show why the battle for territory has become inseparable from the battle to absorb losses.