Stock futures rise as Iran opens Strait of Hormuz amid ceasefire optimism

President Donald Trump’s latest signal on the Iran conflict jolted markets, with investors seizing on his claim in Las Vegas that the war “should be ending pretty soon” and that developments were “going along swimmingly.” Within hours, the mood improved further after Iran said the Strait of Hormuz was completely open to commercial traffic for the remaining period of the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire.

The market reaction was immediate and broad. U.S. stocks rose sharply Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 702 points, or 1.5%, the S&P 500 gaining 0.8%, and the Nasdaq adding 1%. Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit new all-time intraday highs, extending a rally that had already pushed the S&P 500 to a record close on Thursday and given the Nasdaq its longest winning streak since 2009.

The catalyst was not just one speech, but the combination of presidential rhetoric and a concrete geopolitical step. Trump’s comments came in Las Vegas on Thursday, April 16, after Israel and Lebanon agreed to a 10-day ceasefire beginning at 5 p.m. ET that day. Iran’s foreign minister, Seyed Abbas Araghchi, then said Friday that “in line with the ceasefire in Lebanon, the passage for all commercial vessels through Strait of Hormuz is declared completely open for the remaining period of ceasefire,” although ships still had to follow a “coordinated route” announced by Iranian maritime authorities.

That mattered because the Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most important energy chokepoints, and even brief threats to traffic there can ripple through oil prices, gasoline costs, and inflation expectations. Investors have been treating every sign of restraint in the region as a signal that pressure on energy supplies may ease, which in turn can support equities and help steady retirement accounts tied to the S&P 500 and Nasdaq.

Trump thanked Tehran for opening the strait but said the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports remained in effect until a permanent peace deal is reached. He also urged Hezbollah to hold its fire as the truce took effect and said an agreement could soon be reached to end the Iran war. MarineTraffic data showed at least two vessels passed through after the ceasefire, though both were bulk carriers.

For now, markets are betting that the latest diplomatic signals are real enough to matter. The sharper question is whether traders are pricing in a durable de-escalation, or simply chasing another headline-driven rally in a year when geopolitics has repeatedly reached straight into Wall Street.