Stocks steady as oil climbs, investors await Fed decision, Big Tech earnings

Oil, the Fed and Big Tech earnings were pulling Wall Street in three different directions at once, with S&P 500 futures up 0.1%, Dow futures up 0.1% and Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.4% in premarket trading. The most immediate pressure came from crude, which kept rallying amid a U.S. naval blockade on Iran, while investors also braced for the Federal Open Market Committee’s decision and results from Alphabet, Amazon, Meta Platforms and Microsoft after the closing bell.

For retirement accounts, the earnings from the megacap technology names may matter most in the near term because those stocks carry heavy weight in the major indexes. The four companies had lifted full-year capital spending by $94 billion the last time they reported, and investors are watching closely to see whether the money being poured into artificial intelligence is turning into revenue fast enough to justify the outlays. A strong showing could steady the Nasdaq after a rough session; a weak one could ripple through portfolios well beyond Silicon Valley.

For borrowing costs, the Fed is the central event. Markets were pricing in a 100% chance that policymakers would leave the benchmark rate unchanged, but the signal from Jerome Powell may matter more than the decision itself. This could be Powell’s final meeting as chair before his term ends in May, and Kevin Warsh appears on track to replace him. The Fed’s own calendar shows the committee meets eight times a year, with minutes released three weeks after each policy decision, so Wednesday’s statement and Powell’s tone will shape expectations for the rest of the spring.

The central bank is weighing that decision against a tricky backdrop. Inflation is still above its 2% target, the labor market remains weak but not in distress, and oil prices are adding a fresh complication. West Texas Intermediate settled at $99.93 a barrel and Brent at $111.26 a barrel on Tuesday, levels that can feed into gasoline, shipping and broader price pressures if they hold. Brent has surged more than 55% since the Iran war began, climbing from about $72 on Feb. 27 to nearly $120 at its peak, and March delivered one of the largest monthly oil jumps on record, with Brent up 51%.

Markets were already on edge after Tuesday’s drop. The S&P 500 fell 0.49% to 7,138.80, the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.9% to 24,663.80 and the Dow slipped 25.86 points to 49,141.93, even after both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit record highs on Monday. Individual earnings moves were mixed: Starbucks rose 4% after raising full-year guidance, Seagate Technology jumped more than 18% and NXP Semiconductors climbed more than 19% after stronger-than-expected results and guidance, while Robinhood fell 10% after missing first-quarter expectations.

The next few hours will tell investors whether higher oil, the Fed’s signal and Big Tech’s spending plans reinforce one another or cancel each other out. For now, the market is waiting on the three forces that matter most to inflation, earnings and the cost of money.