Swinney predicts SNP majority in Holyrood election, pledges 65-seat win

John Swinney has put a hard number on the SNP’s path to power, saying the party will return at least 65 seats at the Holyrood election. That figure matters because 65 is the threshold for an outright majority in Scotland’s 129-seat Parliament, where MSPs are elected through the Additional Member System using two votes, one for a constituency and one for a region.

The first minister’s claim turns the campaign into a direct test of credibility. The SNP won 64 seats in 2021, one short of a majority, while the Scottish Conservatives took 31. The party has not held an overall majority at Holyrood since the 2011 election, and Swinney’s forecast raises the stakes for a contest that is being fought under intense scrutiny over public services and the SNP’s recent drop in ratings.

The election is scheduled for Thursday 7 May 2026, after the Scottish Parliament was dissolved ahead of the vote. The regulated campaign period began on Wednesday 7 January 2026, nominations closed on Wednesday 1 April 2026, and Monday 20 April 2026 was the deadline to apply to register to vote. Polling day runs from 7am to 10pm, with 73 constituency MSPs and 56 regional MSPs to be chosen across Scotland.

Swinney has also used the run-up to the election to push a public-services message, including a pledge of 100,000 extra GP appointments as part of his programme for government. That focus reflects the pressure facing the SNP as it tries to hold together its core support while persuading undecided voters that it can still deliver on the everyday issues dominating the campaign.

The arithmetic makes his prediction especially consequential. If the SNP reaches 65 seats, it would return to majority government and strengthen its hand in Edinburgh, including its leverage in arguments with London over Scotland’s constitutional future. If it falls short again, the party would face another minority Parliament, leaving Swinney dependent on deals in Holyrood and forcing a harder reset of both its independence strategy and its governing message.