Texas Senate race tightens as Talarico ties Paxton in poll

James Talarico and Ken Paxton were tied at 47 percent apiece in a New York Times/Siena poll released June 30, a result that put a Democratic state lawmaker on equal footing with Texas’s Republican attorney general in the state’s emerging Senate contest. The same survey found Texans still preferred Republicans over Democrats to control the U.S. Senate by 50 percent to 44 percent, but it also showed Talarico with an edge on the traits that often decide close races: 56 percent said he has good character and 51 percent said he has the right kind of moral values, while majorities questioned Paxton on both measures.

Don Levy, Siena’s executive director, said the numbers suggested Texas could be in play this cycle and that voters may ultimately decide the race on character and values. That matters in a state long treated as a Republican stronghold in federal elections, where Democrats have spent years looking for a credible statewide opening.

A separate University of Texas at Austin Texas Politics Project poll, fielded June 5 to 12 among 1,200 registered voters, found Paxton ahead 43 percent to 42 percent, well within its 3.5-point margin of error. The UT survey showed Paxton improving from 34 percent in April while Talarico held steady at 42 percent, underscoring how little separation exists between the two men across recent polling.

That poll also sketched the coalition behind each candidate. Talarico led among independents and moderates, along with voters under 65, women, Hispanics and some higher-education groups. Paxton led among men, and 84 percent of Republican voters said they had moved on from the bitter GOP primary and would support him after he defeated Sen. John Cornyn in the May 26 Republican runoff.

Paxton enters the general election with unusually heavy political baggage. The Texas House impeached him in May 2023, and the Texas Senate acquitted him in September 2023. He also settled long-running securities fraud charges in 2024, agreeing to restitution, community service and ethics training. Talarico has made those legal and ethical fights part of his general-election pitch, while Paxton is trying to unify a Republican electorate that remains large enough to keep the Senate race competitive.

The latest polling leaves Texas in a narrow and unstable position: Republicans still hold the advantage on Senate control, but Talarico’s support among independents, moderates, Hispanics and women shows a Democratic path that would have looked far thinner in past cycles.