Tomato prices surge nearly 40% as tariffs and weather bite

A grocery staple that usually disappears into the background has become one of the clearest signs of food inflation hitting everyday budgets. Tomato prices were up nearly 40% from a year earlier in April 2026, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the fastest pace among the food-at-home categories it tracks.

The spike followed an already steep run-up. Tomato prices hit an eight-year high in March and climbed about 15% in that month alone. By contrast, overall food prices rose 3.2% over the same 12 months, while food-at-home prices increased 2.9%, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service. The USDA is forecasting 3.2% food-at-home inflation for 2026, underscoring that tomatoes are an outlier even in a costly grocery aisle.

The reasons reach well beyond a single bad harvest. On April 14, 2025, the U.S. Department of Commerce announced it would withdraw from the 2019 Tomato Suspension Agreement with Mexico, and the federal government later moved to impose antidumping duties of 20.91% on most fresh tomato imports from Mexico beginning July 14, 2025. U.S. tomato growers and Commerce said the change would help domestic producers compete more fairly, while Mexican ministries of Economy and Agriculture called the move unfair and harmful to both Mexican growers and U.S. industry.

That trade shift matters because tomatoes depend heavily on imports. USDA says fresh vegetable imports are concentrated among a few trading partners, especially Mexico, which supplies about 77% of total fresh vegetable imports to the United States. Tomatoes are among the commodities most reliant on that supply chain, making the market especially sensitive when policy changes raise the cost of imported fruit.

Weather has added another layer of pressure. Mexico’s 2025 tomato production was forecast at 3.1 million metric tons, down 3% from a year earlier, as drought persisted in major production areas and planting for the autumn-winter season was projected to fall. USDA also said Mexican producers were expected to reduce planting in response to the new U.S. duties. Agricultural economists have pointed to tariffs, adverse weather and higher energy prices as the main forces driving the increase.

The effect is visible in kitchens as much as in trade data. Tomatoes are used in pizza, salads, sandwiches, sauces and countless other meals, so even a concentrated price shock can be felt quickly by shoppers. Weather-driven disruptions may ease, but the tariffs and the deeper reliance on Mexican supply are likely to keep tomatoes elevated longer than a typical seasonal swing.