Tony Awards predictions favor Schmigadoon!, Liberation and Ragtime stars
Tony voters put Schmigadoon!, Liberation and Ragtime at the center of Broadway’s biggest night, with 12, 5 and 11 nominations shaping the race.
Broadway’s awards season is converging on a handful of front-runners, with predictions favoring the musical Schmigadoon!, the play Liberation and the Ragtime performances of Joshua Henry and Caissie Levy. If those calls hold, the 79th Annual Tony Awards will reward the season’s most-nominated productions and reinforce which kinds of shows are drawing the strongest industry confidence.
The ceremony is set for Sunday, June 7, 2026, at Radio City Music Hall in New York City, with P!nk hosting and CBS and Paramount+ carrying the broadcast. The Tony Awards are presented by The Broadway League and The American Theatre Wing, and the nominations were announced on May 5 by Uzo Aduba and Darren Criss.
Schmigadoon! and The Lost Boys led the 2026 field with 12 nominations each, while Ragtime followed with 11. Liberation was among the most-nominated plays with five nominations. The nominations in 26 competitive categories were selected by an independent committee of 55 theatre professionals appointed by the Tony Awards Administration Committee, a process designed to keep the awards grounded in peer judgment rather than outside promotion.
That makes the strongest predictions especially revealing. A likely win for Schmigadoon! would cap a season in which the musical emerged as one of the clear consensus favorites. Liberation, with only five nominations but strong predictive momentum, would represent the kind of concentrated critical and industry support that can elevate a play beyond its nomination count. And wins for Henry and Levy would put two of Ragtime’s most watched acting races at the center of the night.
The stakes reach beyond trophies. The Tonys close the Broadway season, and the winners can shape commercial momentum, industry prestige and the future life of a production through touring and licensing. In a year when the leading contenders are concentrated among the most-nominated shows, the awards would not just settle a race. They would signal what Broadway is rewarding right now, from major ensemble productions to star performances that can keep a show in the spotlight well after the curtain falls.
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