Trump backs Bolsonaro heir as Brazil's 2026 election looms

Donald Trump is moving to bolster a new right-wing ally in Brazil just as the country heads into a 2026 presidential race that could reset Latin America’s political balance. Flávio Bolsonaro, the Liberal Party candidate and son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, has emerged as the heir to a political brand that remains powerful even after Jair Bolsonaro was ruled out of the race, leaving Brazil’s election to become a test of whether Trump-style politics can still translate abroad.

The first round is set for October 4, with a runoff on October 25 if needed. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is seeking an unprecedented fourth term, while Jair Bolsonaro remains ineligible to run after being indicted and imprisoned in September for plotting a coup. That has kept the Bolsonaro name central to the campaign through Flávio Bolsonaro, who has been endorsed by his father and is now carrying the family’s bid to return to power.

The Trump-Bolsonaro relationship has only deepened the stakes. Flávio Bolsonaro met Trump at the White House on May 26 in a closed-door Oval Office meeting, where the two discussed organized crime, tariffs, and rare earths and critical minerals. Trump also met Lula at the White House earlier this month and later called him “very dynamic,” but relations have since cooled sharply. On June 2, the Trump administration proposed a 25% tariff on many imports from Brazil under Section 301, citing unfair practices that included digital trade and illegal deforestation, while excluding products such as beef, coffee, rare earths, energy, aircraft parts, and some metals.

Washington’s move against Brazil’s biggest criminal gangs pushed the tension further. The United States designated Primeiro Comando da Capital, known as PCC, and Comando Vermelho as terrorist organizations effective June 5, a step widely viewed in Brazil as politically charged and favorable to Flávio Bolsonaro, who had urged U.S. officials to take that action during his visit. Brazilian officials objected, and analysts said the decision fit a broader pattern of pressure from Washington that has increasingly been read in Brasília through an electoral lens.

The race has tightened enough to look like a rematch in all but name. Lula’s approval has weakened, while Flávio Bolsonaro’s rise was interrupted by a scandal involving audio recordings in which he allegedly asked jailed banker Daniel Vorcaro for $12 million to help produce a film about his father. Even so, recent polling has shown Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro running close in second-round scenarios. For Brazil, the contest will decide more than the presidency. For Washington, it is a measure of how much leverage Trump can still project over the hemisphere’s largest democracy.