Trump plan cuts fuel economy targets, bolsters gasoline vehicles

On December 3 the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration released a proposal that would sharply reduce federal vehicle fuel economy ambitions set under the Biden era. The agency would cut the long term target to roughly 34.5 miles per gallon by 2031 from the previous 50.4 miles per gallon target, and replace the earlier plan of large annual percentage increases with more modest yearly rises of roughly 0.25 to 0.5 percent through 2031. The proposal would also phase out credit trading among automakers by 2028.

The White House framed the plan as a way to lower the sticker price of new vehicles and to reflect consumer preferences for gasoline powered cars. Automakers with large internal combustion engine fleets expressed support, while electric vehicle focused firms and environmental groups warned the change would stall electric vehicle adoption, increase gasoline consumption and raise emissions.

Federal regulators projected the rollback would substantially reduce the net environmental benefits that the earlier rule was expected to deliver and could raise fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions significantly. That assessment and the mechanics of the proposal set up a likely legal and political fight, as the rule is now open for public comment and could face lawsuits from states and advocacy groups.

Public health experts and community advocates said the rollback risks widening harm that has long fallen hardest on low income neighborhoods and communities of color. Increased tailpipe pollution from higher gasoline use would raise levels of nitrogen oxides and fine particulate matter linked to asthma attacks, heart disease and premature death. Those pollutants concentrate near highways, bus depots and industrial corridors where marginalized communities are disproportionately located.

The administration argues that easing standards will make new cars more affordable for buyers who cannot afford higher priced electric models. But economists and health policy researchers caution that lower upfront prices can be offset by higher lifetime fuel expenditures and by added health costs from worsened air quality. The change could also slow investments in electric vehicle manufacturing and charging infrastructure, altering longer term job and economic trajectories in regions that have invested in the clean energy transition.

Environmental justice advocates said the rule would reverse a policy arc intended to reduce air pollution and climate harms. They noted that the benefits of cleaner vehicles extend beyond climate and into everyday health and equity by reducing hospital visits for respiratory conditions and lowering exposure for children and the elderly.

The NHTSA proposal will enter a formal notice and comment period. Regulators, automakers, states and advocacy groups are expected to use that record to weigh in and possibly mount legal challenges. For communities facing the highest pollution burdens, the coming months may determine whether cleaner vehicles become broadly accessible or remain a pathway available to a shrinking share of the population.