Trump pushes voting restrictions as Republicans brace for 2026 midterms

Donald Trump is leaning into election rules, not just campaigning, as he tells Republicans that stricter voting laws, tighter mail-ballot limits and attacks on transgender rights would “guarantee the midterms.” House Republican leaders are pushing a different case, making tax cuts, energy independence and affordability the party’s public selling points while the president’s allies press ahead with a far more confrontational strategy.

The split matters because the 2026 midterms will decide control of Congress for the final two years of Trump’s second term. About one-third of the U.S. Senate and all 435 House seats are on the ballot, along with governors’ races and a long list of down-ballot contests that will shape whether Republicans can keep governing with a narrow margin.

History is warning them anyway. In 18 of the 20 midterms since 1946, the president’s party has lost House seats. A Washington Post analysis said presidents with approval ratings below 50 percent have seen their party lose House seats every time since Harry Truman, and another Post-ABC-Ipsos poll in early May found Trump’s disapproval at a new high while Democrats held a five-point edge in support for Congress. The same analysis showed Democrats with a 14-point advantage in voter enthusiasm.

Rather than wait for the political weather to change, House Republicans are trying to change the terrain. In January, they introduced a voting package that would require photo ID and proof of citizenship beginning in 2027, while immediately banning universal vote-by-mail and ranked-choice voting. The message fits Trump’s broader push to tighten the rules of the contest just as Republicans brace for a tougher electorate.

The party is also putting real money behind the race. The Senate Leadership Fund has pledged $79 million to help GOP Sen. Jon Husted in Ohio against Democrat Sherrod Brown, a sign that national Republicans are preparing for a costly fight. In Georgia, the GOP governor primary went to a runoff after Trump-endorsed Burt Jones fell short of an outright win, another reminder that Trump’s influence is still potent but not always decisive.

AP’s retirements tracker says Congress is on track for significant turnover in 2026, and the party remembers that nearly two-thirds of retiring House members in the 115th Congress were Republicans. Trump-backed challengers have already knocked off incumbents in Indiana, Louisiana, Kentucky and Texas, showing how much internal pressure can reshape the GOP before a general election even begins.

Republicans got a preview of the environment in 2025, when Abigail Spanberger won Virginia’s governor race and Mikie Sherrill won in New Jersey by wide margins. For Trump and his party, the gamble is clear: if traditional midterm backlash still applies, then fighting over voting rules may not save them.