Trump signals Iran deal may be near, despite oil market volatility

Trump tried to project calm on the Iran talks, insisting he had told his representatives not to rush and that “time is on our side,” even as he said a deal had been “largely negotiated” and would be finalized shortly. That mix of patience and urgency matters because the current framework would do more than pause the confrontation. It would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, lift the U.S. naval blockade on Iranian ships there, and move Iran toward disposing of its stockpile of highly enriched uranium.

The Strait of Hormuz is the leverage point at the center of the talks. Roughly one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments pass through it, which means any easing there can move energy markets almost immediately. Brent crude fell more than 5% on Sunday, with futures around $97.94 a barrel by 04:00 GMT, after traders began to price in the possibility of a breakthrough. Japan’s Nikkei 225 also hit an all-time high as investors bet that a wider war risk could ease.

Still, the reported framework leaves several of the hardest questions unresolved. U.S. officials have said Iran agreed in principle to dispose of highly enriched uranium, but the broader package still hinges on sanctions relief, the release of tens of billions of dollars in frozen Iranian oil revenues and assets held in foreign banks, and the future of Tehran’s regional proxy network. The latest proposal also included a 60-day ceasefire extension, suggesting the talks were moving toward managed delay rather than a final settlement.

That uncertainty explains why the politics around the talks have turned volatile in Washington and Tehran alike. Senator Lindsey Graham warned on X that the deal framework could strengthen Hezbollah and Shia militias in Iraq. Senator Roger Wicker called the rumored 60-day ceasefire a disaster. On the Iranian side, foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei said an agreement was not imminent and accused Washington of shifting its positions.

For Trump, the calculation is not just about oil prices. A deal that lowers the risk of a clash in the Gulf could give him a diplomatic victory, but a concession seen as too generous to Iran could trigger backlash from Republicans and unsettle allies including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. The leverage is real, but so is the risk that a deal meant to stabilize the region instead hardens the fight over how far Washington should go to get it.