Trump touts falling gas prices as he tries to reset midterm message

Donald Trump told supporters that oil and gas prices were coming down as he tried to turn a war with Iran into evidence that his administration had the economy under control. On a campaign-style swing through Nevada and Arizona, he pushed a familiar pocketbook message in states where the cost of driving, heating and commuting can quickly shape political mood.

The effort came as Republican strategists worried the White House had lost control of the affordability debate. Trump’s approval rating fell to 36% in a late-March Reuters/Ipsos poll, a second-term low, while Democrats were seen as favored to retake the House and several Senate contests were trending their way, according to the Cook Political Report. In Phoenix, Trump warned supporters that presidents almost always lose the midterms and said Republicans had to win them.

The gas-price message has been central to that reset. In early March, fuel costs jumped to a national average of $3.47, up nearly 50 cents in a week, and oil briefly rose above $100 a barrel before easing. Trump brushed off the spike as “a little glitch,” even as the increase fed anxiety across households already squeezed by inflation, rent and grocery bills.

By mid-April, the administration was publicly suggesting relief could be coming. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he was optimistic retail gasoline prices could reach the $3 range sometime this summer. Energy Secretary Chris Wright had said a month earlier that gas had a very good chance of falling below $3 by the summer. At the same time, the national average gas price had climbed above $4 a gallon for the first time since 2022, underscoring how fragile any easing could be.

The timeline for lower prices depends heavily on negotiations with Iran and whether the Strait of Hormuz can be reopened without disruption. Some Trump advisers see that as a way to cool economic anxiety before voters cast ballots in November 2026. The White House is also pointing to the tax and immigration bill Trump is touting as part of his affordability agenda, hoping it can widen a narrow gasoline story into a broader case for Republican governance.

Trump’s own message has been more tentative. He said oil and gas prices could be down, the same, or a little higher by the midterm elections. That caveat cuts against the political gamble at the center of his pitch: if voters feel relief at the pump, he wants credit for calm. If prices rise again, the affordability fight could deepen just as the midterm campaign accelerates.