Trump’s threat to strike Iran raises risk of higher U.S. energy costs

President Donald Trump has ratcheted up pressure on Iran and signaled a narrow timeline that could quickly drag global energy markets into a new shock, with analysts warning that a disruption at the Strait of Hormuz could choke off a large share of world oil and liquefied natural gas and raise costs for American consumers.

At the inaugural meeting of his so-called Board of Peace, the president warned that “Iran has about 10 days to make a deal ending its nuclear program, or ‘bad things will happen,’” and added, “Maybe we're going to make a deal. You're going to be finding out over the next probably 10 days.” CBS News reported that top national security officials have told Mr. Trump the military could be ready as soon as Saturday, citing sources familiar with the discussions.

Energy analysts and regional specialists offered stark numbers. Tehrantimes cited figures showing “more than 14 million barrels per day of oil and condensates traversed this choke point in 2025, representing a third of global seaborne oil exports.” Ajay Singh, a Tokyo-based management advisor and former Shell executive, warned, “If a conflict breaks out, Iran may attempt a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which would stop the flow of around 20 percent of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas from various Persian Gulf countries. If that happens prices would strike to much higher levels.”

Those transit figures are different from Iran’s own production totals, a contrast policymakers and markets watch closely. CBS News, citing Capital Economics, noted Iran produces about 4.7 million barrels per day, roughly 4.4 percent of global supplies. Market analysts say the difference matters because a Strait of Hormuz blockade would halt exports from multiple Gulf producers and Qatar’s liquefied natural gas shipments, not just Iranian crude.

The potential pathway to higher costs is straightforward. CBS reported economists who say open hostilities could constrict global oil flows and push U.S. energy prices and inflation higher. Although oil has risen in recent days, prices remain well below their most recent peak of $123 per barrel in March 2022. Still, any spike would quickly translate into higher pump prices, which are the most immediate pain point for American households and could slow the recent year-over-year decline in gas prices.

The possible military scenarios range from limited, targeted strikes to wider disruption. Noah Smith of the Noahpinion blog argued that Mr. Trump’s options look bounded: “So Trump was taking almost no military risk with these strikes, they don’t show a new, bolder, braver Trump. And the President knows that public opinion is strongly against a war with Iran.” Smith added that the likeliest path is limited airstrikes focused on Iran’s nuclear facilities and then a pullback, noting historical precedents such as the 2020 killing of Qasem Soleimani.

Political calculations complicate the economic calculus. Rob Godfrey, a Republican strategist cited by Tehrantimes, warned that Mr. Trump must consider a base skeptical of foreign entanglements, saying, “The president has to keep in mind the political base that propelled him is skeptical of foreign engagement and foreign entanglements because ending the era of 'forever wars' was an explicit campaign promise.”

What matters now for Americans is whether any U.S. action triggers a Strait of Hormuz response. If Iran attempts a blockade or if regional attacks escalate, the flow of more than 14 million barrels per day and nearly all of Qatar's LNG shipments could be at risk, with direct effects on transportation, manufacturing, agriculture, and household budgets. Markets, consumers, and Washington will be watching oil prices, military statements, and shipping reports for signs that a temporary strike has become a broader supply shock.