US existing home sales fall to nine-month low amid tight supply

Existing-home sales fell 3.6% in March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.98 million, the weakest pace since June 2025, even as the median price climbed to a March record of $408,800. The numbers show a spring market where demand is not collapsing so much as being pinched by affordability fatigue: fewer homes are available, borrowing remains expensive, and prices are still rising.

The National Association of Realtors said unsold inventory increased 3.0% from February to 1.36 million units, equal to 4.1 months’ supply. That is still tight by historical standards, and Lawrence Yun said the market remains far from normal. March sales were “sluggish and below last year’s pace,” Yun said, citing lower consumer confidence and softer job growth. He said another 300,000 to 500,000 homes for sale would help restore balance.

The pressure point is easy to see in the spring selling season, which usually brings the year’s strongest traffic. Instead, sales fell month over month in all four regions. Year over year, sales rose in the South and West but declined in the Northeast and Midwest. Realtor.com said condo sales dropped 7.9% from a year earlier, while single-family sales slipped just 0.3%, a sign that lower-cost segments are also losing momentum. The sharpest regional decline came in the Northeast, where sales fell 8.5% from February to an annual pace of 430,000, the lowest since 1999.

Prices have not eased enough to offset the rise in financing costs. The March median of $408,800 was up 1.4% from a year earlier and marked the highest March reading in NAR’s data, which goes back to 1999. That leaves a narrow field of buyers with enough income, savings, and credit to absorb today’s monthly payments. For many households, the question is no longer whether they want to buy, but whether they can qualify without stretching too far.

NAR has already cut its 2026 outlook sharply. It now expects existing-home sales to rise 4% this year, down from a prior forecast of 14%, and sees new-home sales as flat rather than up 5%. Realtor.com’s 2026 forecast is only slightly firmer, projecting existing-home sales will rise 1.7% to 4.13 million. Even with a modest inventory recovery, the market is still being shaped by one basic reality: supply is thin, rates are higher, and a growing share of would-be buyers are being priced out while the spring season underperforms.