U.S. LNG exports hit 11.19m tons as Europe takes record cargoes

Kpler projects U.S. liquefied natural gas exports will reach 11.19 million tons in March, a sharp jump that would mark the second-highest monthly total on record and underpin a wave of European imports that left the continent sourcing the bulk of its LNG from the United States in February, Reuters reported. Kpler data cited by Reuters show U.S. shipments to Europe totaled about 8.05 million tons in February, roughly 57% of the region’s inflows, positioning U.S. supply as the dominant supplier to a market scrambling to restore depleted inventories.

"Spot prices for liquefied natural gas (LNG) in Asia have drifted lower despite solid demand in the top-consuming region and record imports by Europe," Reuters’ Clyde Russell wrote, capturing the unusual dynamic in markets last week. The softness in Asian spot prices has been driven in part by weaker buying from China: Kpler figures reported by Oilprice and others put China’s February imports at 3.38 million tons, the lowest monthly volume since April 2018 and down from 4.47 million tons in February 2025. Oilprice summarized the effect: "The record-breaking LNG arrivals were helped by weaker Chinese demand that pressured LNG prices on the spot market, making the fuel more affordable."

Europe’s urgency is visible in its storage statistics and import trajectory. Reuters notes continent wide gas inventories were around 32% full versus a five‑year seasonal average near 49%, while other industry reports cited a roughly 30% fill level, underlining a clear mismatch with normal seasonal buffers. Bitget and other outlets highlighted rising monthly arrivals after a January baseline of 13.67 million tons and described February’s flow as a substantial year‑on‑year increase. An IEA projection cited by industry reporting forecasts Europe could import more than 185 billion cubic meters of LNG in 2026 as the region pivots away from pipeline flows.

The United States’ surge is reshaping supplier geography. "U.S. LNG has largely replaced Russian pipeline natural gas, which has been cut back since Russia's invasion of Ukraine four years ago," Reuters noted. Nevertheless, Russian LNG remains present: Kpler tracked some 1.6 million tons of Russian cargoes into Europe in February, down slightly from January yet enough to keep Russia as the continent’s second‑largest LNG supplier. IEEFA’s half‑year data for 2025 reinforce the trend: U.S. deliveries to Europe rose 46% year on year in H1 2025 and accounted for 57% of the continent’s LNG imports over that period, with Sabine Pass in Louisiana responsible for about 27% of U.S. shipments to Europe.

Policy and regulatory frictions could complicate the trade. Oilprice reported that U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright asked the EU in December to exempt U.S. energy exporters from planned methane regulation until 2035 and warned that emissions monitoring, reporting and verification rules due to take effect in 2027, along with other sustainability directives, could affect U.S. energy exports to Europe. Those regulatory uncertainties add a political overlay to an already tight logistics picture shaped by shipping risk and tensions in the Middle East. As Reuters observed, "Throw in tensions in the Middle East and the threat to shipments from Qatar, the second-biggest exporter behind the United States, and the relaxed spot price seems incongruous."

Market watchers say the current flows are likely to persist as Europe rebuilds stockpiles. "It’s likely that Europe's strong demand for LNG will continue as the continent will need to refill depleted gas inventories," Reuters wrote, framing a short‑term equilibrium where rising U.S. supply, muted Chinese demand and geopolitical risk together keep spot markets unusually balanced. Longer term, analysts point to infrastructure expansions in the United States and an evolving regulatory backdrop in Europe as the key variables that will determine whether the U.S. role in global LNG trade endures.