Wayward drones from Russia and Ukraine rattle NATO’s Baltic flank

A NATO military jet shot down a suspected Ukrainian drone over Estonia on May 19, a stark sign that the war in Ukraine was no longer confined to its own skies. It was the first time NATO said one of its Baltic air-policing jets had fired a missile in defense of the alliance since Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania joined NATO in 2004, and it came as lawmakers in nearby Vilnius were forced underground the next day when another drone approached the city.

The incidents across the Baltic region have intensified a security dilemma for countries that are not at war but now find themselves inside the risk zone. In recent weeks, Ukrainian drones have strayed into the airspace of Finland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, triggering air warnings, military scrambles and public alarms along NATO’s northern and eastern flank. On March 25, two stray Ukrainian military drones entered Estonia and Latvia via Russia; one struck a chimney at Estonia’s Auvere power station and the other crash-landed in Latvia. On March 29 and 30, Finland reported a suspected territorial violation by unmanned aerial vehicles in the southeast and deployed F/A-18 fighter jets, later identifying one object as a Ukrainian AN-196 drone.

Finland’s prime minister, Petteri Orpo, said Russian electronic jamming could explain the drift. That explanation has become central to how Baltic and Ukrainian officials are describing the spillover, with Kyiv and the Baltic states in most cases blaming Russian electronic defenses for pushing drones off course. The pattern has also exposed how vulnerable border states are to the growing mix of drones, spoofing and electronic warfare. On May 15, Finland warned 1.8 million people in the wider Helsinki region to stay indoors because of suspected drone activity and temporarily suspended air traffic at the capital airport.

The pressure has also reached politics. On May 7, Latvia and Lithuania called on NATO to strengthen air defenses after two suspected stray drones crossed from Russia and crashed in Latvia, where one exploded at an oil storage facility in the Rezekne region and damaged four empty oil tanks. Latvia’s defense minister, Andris Spruds, resigned on May 10 after Prime Minister Evika Silina said anti-drone systems had not been deployed fast enough, and Silina resigned on May 14 after Spruds’ Progressives party withdrew support, collapsing the coalition government.

The danger widened beyond the Baltics on the night of May 28 and 29, when an armed drone exploded on the top floor of a ten-story residential building in Galaţi, Romania, injuring two residents, including a child. The United Nations said it was the first reported breach of Romanian airspace by an armed drone to cause casualties, and said similar incidents had been reported over the previous 12 months in Moldova, Poland, Kazakhstan, Belarus, Bulgaria, Greece and Türkiye. As Ukraine’s long-range drone campaign hits Russian Baltic Sea oil ports such as Primorsk and Ust-Luga, which handle nearly 40% of Russia’s national oil and gas exports, the war is increasingly testing how far NATO can contain drone warfare before it reaches civilians far from the front.