Welsh independence looms over Senedd race as Plaid softens stance

Welsh independence has become a live campaign issue in Cardiff Bay, but the arithmetic of the Senedd still looks a long way from delivering separation from the UK. Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth has ruled out holding an independence referendum in the party’s first term if it forms the next Welsh Government, instead pushing the question into the longer term with a white paper on independence.

That caution matters because the next Senedd election, due on 7 May 2026, will be the first under major reforms that expand the chamber from 60 to 96 Members and shorten Senedd terms from five years to four. Plaid is trying to keep independence on the table without turning the campaign into a referendum on outright secession, a line designed to appeal to voters who want more powers for Wales but stop short of breaking up the UK.

The constitutional debate has been sharpened by the Independent Commission on the Constitutional Future of Wales, chaired by Rowan Williams and Laura McAllister. Its final report said the constitutional status quo is unsustainable and set out three viable options for Wales: enhanced devolution, a federal UK or independence. The Welsh Government accepted that assessment, but the report also underlined the gap between debate and delivery. A vote for Plaid would not itself create a mandate for independence, nor would it provide a mechanism for immediate departure from the UK.

Polling still points to a country that is interested in constitutional change but not persuaded by full separation. A YouGov poll for Cardiff University and ITV Wales in September 2024 found 25% support for Welsh independence. Another poll reported in 2024 put support at 29%, while support for giving the Senedd more powers was higher still. The numbers suggest that the more immediate political opening lies in devolution, not independence.

History reinforces that point. The Senedd was created in 1999 as the National Assembly for Wales, and devolution has gradually grown through extra law-making and tax powers. Yet Plaid’s 2021 breakthrough was limited: it won 13 seats, while Labour took half the chamber. That result showed the independence argument had not produced the kind of electoral surge seen for the SNP in Scotland.

The 2026 contest is therefore shaping up as a test not just of Plaid’s support, but of how far Welsh voters are prepared to go. Even if Plaid gains ground, the constitutional reality remains stubborn: independence would still face legal, political and public-opinion hurdles long after the ballots are counted.