FCS teams eye upset chances in 127 FBS matchups for 2026

The cleanest upset paths in the subdivision are the ones that can survive into the fourth quarter, and that is where the 2026 board gets interesting. HERO Sports counted 127 FCS-vs.-FBS matchups this season, up from 126 in 2025, 121 in 2024 and 118 in 2023. The payoff has not vanished either: FCS teams beat FBS opponents four times in 2025 and six times in 2024, part of a trend that has made these games more than tuneups. One result can rewrite a ranking race, reshape a playoff résumé and change how the whole subdivision is viewed.

Southeastern Louisiana at ULM on Sept. 19 looks like the kind of game that can flip the narrative fast. ULM opens its schedule with road games at Mississippi State on Sept. 5 and UAB on Sept. 12, so the Warhawks will already have two road tests before seeing the Lions in Monroe, Louisiana. Southeastern has reasons to believe it can make that matchup uncomfortable: Kyle Lowe is back at quarterback, Deantre Jackson returns in the backfield and linebacker Jake Dalmado arrives from Nicholls to shore up the defense. The Lions are also not treating the non-conference slate like a throwaway, with a road trip to South Alabama carrying a $380,000 payout and the ULM game bringing another $300,000. If that offense gets to the fourth quarter within striking distance, this is the kind of spot where an FCS team can steal a game from a vulnerable FBS roster.

South Dakota State at Northwestern is the one that should make the rest of the FCS circle in red. The Jackrabbits return Chase Mason, who went 7-0 as a starter in his debut season, and he has a proven target in Lofton O’Groske. They also bring back four of their top six offensive linemen, which is the kind of production that travels when the opponent is bigger, faster and wearing a Power conference jersey. SDSU loses a 1,000-yard running back and its leading receiver, but the structure is still intact enough to keep Northwestern honest deep into the game.

Montana at Oregon State is the other heavyweight watch. The Grizzlies are built around All-American quarterback Keali’i Ah Yat, All-American running back Eli Gillman and freshman All-American receiver Brooks Davis, but they have to replace their entire starting offensive line. That is the price of trying to upset an FBS team on the road, and it gets steeper with Bobby Kennedy taking over after Bobby Hauck stepped down. Sacred Heart at UMass rounds out the list because the Minutemen went 0-12 in 2025, including a loss to Bryant, while Sacred Heart finished 8-4 as an FCS independent. UMass still has Stonehill, UConn and Rutgers on the non-conference schedule, and the Pioneers are the kind of opponent that can turn a bad season into a damaging one fast.

The NCAA’s upset archive goes back to 1978, when Division I football split into I-A and I-AA, and the history is clear: these games are where FCS credibility gets built.