Richmond, Mercer among FCS teams poised to surprise in 2026

The FCS teams that matter in November usually give away the clue long before the bracket does. The preseason conversation keeps circling the loudest brands, but the better read is always the same: the teams with returning quarterback production, proven defensive disruption and enough roster continuity to survive the grind are the ones most likely to move from overlooked to unavoidable. Richmond and Mercer fit that profile in different ways, and the league’s newest upstart reminds you why first impressions in FCS football are so often wrong.

Richmond looks like a team that was better than its record

Richmond’s 7-5 finish and 3-4 mark in its first Patriot League season in 2025 read like a reset year, but the details say otherwise. The Spiders lost all four of their FCS games by seven points or fewer, including a 21-14 road loss at Lehigh on Aug. 30, 2025, and they closed the league slate with a 34-28 defeat against Lafayette on Nov. 15, 2025. That kind of margin profile is exactly what makes a program interesting in the next cycle, because it suggests the gap is not structural, it is situational.

The defensive core is why Richmond belongs in any serious 2026 surprise conversation. Camden Byrd, a Second Team All-Patriot League selection, started all 12 games and finished with 34 tackles, 11.5 tackles for loss and 8.5 sacks, while linebacker Carter Glassmyer and safety Tayshaun Burney both return. Burney led the Spiders with 10 pass breakups, and the secondary depth looks good enough to travel into late-season weather and still hold up. Richmond is projected to bring back 22 significant contributors, including 16 players who logged more than 300 snaps in 2025, which gives this defense real continuity, not just name recognition.

The reason Richmond still feels like a sleeper rather than a sure thing is the offense. The Spiders averaged only 183.33 passing yards per game in 2025, and the quarterback room was split between Ashten Snelsire and Kyle Wickersham. Snelsire completed 58 of 111 passes for 848 yards and eight touchdowns, while Wickersham went 137 of 212 for 1,352 yards and nine touchdowns, leaving the position productive but unsettled. If Richmond gets even a modest jump in passing efficiency, the defense is good enough to turn one-score games into a conference push very quickly.

Continuity on the sideline adds to that case. Russ Huesman enters his 10th season as Richmond’s head coach in 2026 and remains the second-winningest coach in program history, which matters in a year when the Spiders are also navigating their second season as a football-only Patriot League member. Richmond was already respected enough to be picked second in the 2025 Patriot League preseason poll, with three first-place votes, and it opened 2025 ranked No. 25 in the Stats Perform preseason top 25. That is not hidden in the basement, but it is still a spot where national attention can lag behind actual playoff equity.

Mercer’s loudest evidence is the kind that usually carries into November

Mercer’s case is built on a different kind of underappreciated edge: the Bears already proved they can dominate at the top of the Southern Conference, then followed that with one of the most decorated individual seasons in the subdivision. Mercer went 9-3 overall and 8-0 in league play in 2025, and freshman quarterback Braden Atkinson turned into the kind of player who changes how opponents defend a roster. He completed 268 of 406 passes for 3,596 yards and 34 touchdowns, won the 2025 Jerry Rice Award, and finished among the top five in Walter Payton Award voting.

The explosive performances were not empty calorie stats, either. Atkinson threw for a school-record 538 yards and five touchdowns in the 62-0 rout of VMI, then followed with a 347-yard, three-touchdown outing in a win at Princeton. Those are the kinds of games that signal a quarterback can carry efficiency and aggression into tougher months, especially when the player is already comfortable operating as a freshman in pressure moments. Mercer does not need to guess who its passing identity belongs to, and that alone separates it from a lot of FCS teams with prettier offseason buzz.

The defense is the part that makes Mercer more than a passing-game story. Andrew Zock won the 2025 Buck Buchanan Award after a season that produced 20.0 tackles for loss, 11.5 sacks, 46 tackles, four pass breakups, two forced fumbles and a recovery, and Mercer’s official notes said the defense ranked first nationally in team sacks, third in first-down defense, fourth in rushing defense, fourth in team tackles for loss and 17th in third-down defense. When a team can pair a freshman quarterback award winner with a defense that disruptive, the ceiling is obvious even if the national conversation is not.

Mercer also has the kind of coaching structure that can keep the machine running. Joel Taylor, who was announced as the program’s 22nd head coach in December 2025, returned to Macon after serving as Mercer’s defensive coordinator from 2020 to 2023. The 2026 staff still includes offensive coordinator Austin Davis and defensive coordinator Tripp Weaver, which matters because coordinator continuity is one of the few offseason advantages that can survive headlines and portal noise.

The newcomer lesson still matters

The broader sleeper argument is sharpened by UTRGV, the newest kind of team that people love to dismiss before the ball is kicked. In its inaugural 2025 season, UTRGV went 9-3 and 5-3 in the Southland, scored 39.58 points per game and allowed only 18.83, and head coach Travis Bush received a contract extension through at least 2030 after the season. The Vaqueros also added 26 players in their 2026 recruiting class, but they are trying to replace the senior-year production of Eddie Lee Marburger, whose 2025 season made him a Walter Payton Award finalist and one of the most important offensive players in the subdivision.

That is the real filter for 2026. Richmond has the defense and enough continuity to erase last year’s narrow losses, Mercer has the quarterback and pass-rush combination that usually travels deep into the season, and a newcomer like UTRGV shows how quickly a program can force a rethink if the structure is sound. The teams worth watching are not always the loudest in July; they are the ones with the cleanest path to turning one good unit into a November problem.