Fact To File Lands Strong Odds-On Favourite Tag For Ryanair Chase

Willie Mullins has two champion race wins already banked at this Festival and the market is betting heavily that a third arrives at 4.00pm on St Patrick's Thursday, with Fact To File installed as an 8/11 odds-on favourite for the Grade 1 Ryanair Chase.

The JP McManus-owned gelding arrives at Prestbury Park as defending champion and Irish Gold Cup winner, chasing a third consecutive Festival victory. He took the Brown Advisory in 2024, returned to win this race 12 months ago, and now steps out on the same track looking to make it a hat-trick of Cheltenham wins in as many years. The consensus among the sport's sharpest eyes is that he'll get the job done.

Ruby Walsh is unequivocal. "Fact To File can avoid bad luck, he should win," he said. "Impaire Et Passe could be the one to chase him home for a Willie Mullins 1-2, but I can't see past Fact To File." Jonathan Doidge is equally bullish, albeit with a touch of personal relief: "I've been praying that Willie Mullins would send Fact To File to this race and Gaelic Warrior to the Gold Cup and I've got my wish in that respect. I'm not saying that Fact To File can't win a Gold Cup but I do think he is perfectly suited by this trip at a stiff track and on more or less any ground."

The decision to bypass the Gold Cup supplement was deliberate and, according to McManus, straightforward. "He wasn't entered for the Gold Cup for a reason and that was I was worried he might not get the trip," the owner said. "Everyone wants to win the Gold Cup and no more than myself, but the Ryanair felt the right thing for the horse." McManus retains legitimate Gold Cup ammunition in Spillane's Tower and defending champion Inothewayurthinkin, meaning the £25,000 supplement was never a serious temptation. Had he paid it, he would have stripped his Ryanair hand down to Jonbon, who is a prolific Grade 1 winner but carries a notably patchy Cheltenham record: just 2-7 at the track, with three odds-on defeats in that tally.

The Racing Post framed the Gold Cup decision as ruthlessly pragmatic, comparing it to Lossiemouth's repeated routing to the Mares' Hurdle: it may not be the crowd-pleasing call, but Cheltenham is about winning. The stamina question over three and a quarter miles on the New Course had genuine weight, and it appears to have driven the strategic thinking as much as any sentiment about the Gold Cup's prestige.

Ground conditions are the one variable McManus's racing manager Frank Berry flagged with genuine concern. "He would like some rain and it walked quite good, so it could be a concern," Berry said. "You only have to look at his run at Kempton on what could be similar ground. The ground would be a worry, but other than that the horse is in great form. It wasn't an easy decision, but he was really good in this race last year so we went for the same trip and hopefully he gets his ground now too."

The opposition is not without quality. Impaire Et Passe, a Grade 1 winner over fences at Aintree last season, returned in style at Gowran last month in the Red Mills Chase. Joseph O'Brien saddles Banbridge, the King George runner-up, looking to exploit any conditions that suit. But in a field dominated by Irish contenders, none of them carries the form line, the track record, or the tipster consensus that Fact To File does.

Mullins has already collected the Champion Hurdle with Lossiemouth and the Queen Mother Champion Chase with Il Etait Temps. If Fact To File handles the ground, a third consecutive Festival win, and a third consecutive title in this race, is precisely what the market expects.