Lovcen chases Japanese Derby crown as Realize Sirius looms large

Lovcen entered the 93rd Tokyo Yushun at Tokyo Racecourse as the horse to beat, but the Japanese Derby again looked more like a pressure test than a coronation. The 2,400-meter turf classic carried ¥608,720,000 in total value, with ¥300,000,000 waiting for the winner, and only 18 colts were allowed to start from a crop of nearly 8,000 Thoroughbred foals born in 2023. In a race that has helped define Japan’s breeding and betting culture since 1932, the favorite had to prove he could stretch his Satsuki Sho form all the way to the country’s most demanding 3-year-old mile-and-a-half.

The central question was whether Lovcen could validate that favoritism. Haruki Sugiyama’s colt, running for Forest Racing, had won the Satsuki Sho and was chasing the second leg of the JRA Triple Crown, but he had never raced beyond 2,000 meters. His pedigree by World Premiere pointed toward stamina, and that mattered over Tokyo’s 2,400 meters. The breeding subplot was unusually strong, too: six of the top eight favorites were Deep Impact grandchildren, a stat that underscored how much the old champion still shapes Japan’s classic scene.

Realize Sirius loomed as the most serious spoiler. He had already beaten Lovcen in the Kyodo News Hai, then chased him home in the Satsuki Sho, turning Sunday’s race into a rematch with real wagering consequence. Lovcen’s draw added more tension. He landed stall 17, an outside gate that can be punishing for a front-runner at Tokyo, especially in a Derby where position and timing often decide whether a favorite gets to control the race or gets swallowed up by the field.

The numbers warned against treating Lovcen as a certainty. Over the last 10 Japanese Derbys, the favorite had won only three times, finished second three times and third twice. Roger Barows showed the size of the upset window when he won as a double-digit longshot in 2019. That history left room for a horse like Realize Sirius, and perhaps other contenders such as Going to Sky, to make the race far less straightforward than the market suggested.

The Tokyo Yushun was built in 1932 at Tokyo Racecourse to mirror Britain’s Triple Crown system and raise the level of Japanese thoroughbred quality. Only eight horses that have won both the Satsuki Sho and the Derby have gone on to complete the Triple Crown with the Kikuka Sho, and Contrail in 2020 was the latest to do it, one of only three undefeated Triple Crown winners in JRA history. Croix du Nord won the 2025 Derby, but Sunday’s running asked a different question: whether Lovcen could join the small, demanding line of horses that make the second jewel look like destiny rather than danger.