Analysis

O'Brien Tips 20-1 Outsider Montreal as Each-Way Epsom Derby Value

Aidan O'Brien called 20-1 shot Montreal "a big price" at Ballydoyle on Monday, urging punters it's "very hard to not have an each-way bet" on the Sea The Stars colt.

David Kumar2 min read
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O'Brien Tips 20-1 Outsider Montreal as Each-Way Epsom Derby Value
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Aidan O'Brien used Monday's Ballydoyle press morning to fire a warning to ante-post Epsom Derby markets, nominating 20-1 outsider Montreal as a colt too good to ignore at his current price.

"Montreal was very smart at Leopardstown when he won," O'Brien said when asked to identify a Derby sleeper. "But, listen, it's very hard to not have an each-way [bet] on Montreal. He's a big price."

The Sea The Stars colt arrives at Derby discussions relatively unexposed, last seen destroying a Leopardstown maiden by 10 lengths in August. That margin, combined with O'Brien's pointed endorsement from the man who has won the past three runnings of the Epsom Classic, gives the recommendation considerable weight. O'Brien took the last three Derbies with Auguste Rodin, City Of Troy and Lambourn in succession, and will be bidding for a record-extending 12th victory in the race this year.

While Montreal drew the headline recommendation, O'Brien also flagged Isaac Newton, a Camelot colt he described with unusual emphasis as "a very dark horse." He said he remained uncertain whether Isaac Newton would be aimed at the Derby or redirected toward Ascot, but added that the colt "is much better than what people think."

AI-generated illustration
AI-generated illustration

The stable's leading Derby contender remains Pierre Bonnard, the Camelot colt who won the Group 1 Criterium de Saint-Cloud and heads ante-post markets as a general 11-2 chance. Pierre Bonnard was reported to be on course for the key Derby trials at Leopardstown before heading to Epsom.

O'Brien made clear why getting Derby selection right matters more than any other call a trainer makes. "The Derby is still the race, it's what the whole breed is based on," he said. "It's the ultimate test, mental, physical, they have to be quick, they have to stay. It's a brutal race, but that is the way it has to be, unforgiving. It's the race the whole breed is based on. It's just the way it is."

With Pierre Bonnard heading a powerful Ballydoyle hand, the real intrigue now centres on whether Montreal's 10-length Leopardstown performance translates to a full Derby preparation, and whether O'Brien's public endorsement at 20-1 proves as prescient as his recent record at Epsom suggests it might be.

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