Peter Pan Stakes at Aqueduct shapes Belmont path, Trendsetter seeks upset reprise

Aqueduct's Belmont bridge

Aqueduct's Peter Pan Stakes is carrying more than local-prep status this spring. With Belmont entry and starting fees waived for the first three finishers, the Grade 3 at 1 1/8 miles has become a real gateway race, not just a stop on the way to somewhere else.

That is what makes the timing so important for New York racing. NYRA's 2026 Belmont at the Big A meet opens April 30 and runs through June 28, the Belmont Stakes Racing Festival will be at Saratoga Race Course for the third and final time, and live racing at Aqueduct pauses from May 26 to June 2 before resuming June 11. The final race day at Aqueduct lands on Sunday, June 28, which gives this Peter Pan one last chance to act as a handoff into the next era.

The race also has the kind of recent history that gives it weight beyond the present field. Arcangelo won the Peter Pan in 2024 before going on to capture the Belmont Stakes and the Travers, a reminder that this race can point straight to top-level form when the right 3-year-old catches fire at the right moment.

A six-horse field with real consequences

The 2026 Peter Pan is a compact six-horse field, but the small number of runners does not reduce the importance of the result. BloodHorse listed Growth Equity as the 6-5 morning-line favorite, with Talk to Me Jimmy at 9-5, Trendsetter at 3-1, Bull by the Horns at 8-1, Gulfy at 8-1 and Azam at 10-1.

That pricing tells the story of the race in one glance. Growth Equity brings the favorite's burden, but Trendsetter is the horse that can change the conversation if he repeats his recent best. In a race where the first three finishers get their Belmont fees waived, even a runner-up effort can be more valuable than a narrow win in a lesser spot.

The shape of the race matters too. A six-horse field can become tactical fast, and that gives pace, positioning and patience more value than raw reputation. If the early fractions are honest, the late-running types get a chance to turn the Peter Pan into a springboard rather than a final exam.

Trendsetter is the horse with the most upside

Trendsetter arrives with the kind of profile that makes horse racing fans lean in. He won the April 11 Lexington Stakes at Keeneland by 2 1/4 lengths as a 32-1 upsetter, and he earned a career-best 85 Beyer Speed Figure when he stopped the clock in 1:44.51.

That kind of jump does not happen by accident. Trendsetter is a 3-year-old gelding by Modernist out of Suyapa, and the fact that he is still not nominated to the Triple Crown only adds to the stakes of the afternoon. A strong enough Peter Pan showing could force that question into the open, which is exactly the sort of advancement story that changes the rest of a season.

Ben Colebrook's view is straightforward: Aqueduct's wider turns should help him. If that proves true, Trendsetter becomes the most interesting horse in the race, because he has already shown he can win from well off the radar and now gets a setup that could let him repeat the move against better company.

Growth Equity and the rest still have to be taken seriously

Growth Equity deserves respect as the 6-5 favorite, and Talk to Me Jimmy's 9-5 morning line shows that this is not a one-horse race disguised as a stakes. Bull by the Horns, Gulfy and Azam may be longer shots on paper, but in a small field their role is still meaningful because one change in pace or one clean trip can decide who leaves Aqueduct with a Belmont path intact.

That is what separates this Peter Pan from an ordinary spring stakes. It is not only about purse money or local bragging rights; it is about whether a colt can turn one graded attempt into a legitimate next-race plan. With the Belmont fees waived for the top three, the race rewards upward movement, not just final placing.

Santa Anita's Senorita asks a different question

On the other coast, the Senorita Stakes at Santa Anita is shaping up as a deeper and more open filly test. The race drew 10 fillies, carries a $100,000 purse, and is run at about 6 1/2 furlongs on the hillside turf course, which means the race should reward balance, timing and the ability to handle a demanding trip.

Light Won Up heads that field with a résumé that already says she belongs in graded company. She won the Sweet Life Stakes by 2 3/4 lengths on February 7, then finished fourth in the GIII Limestone at Keeneland after going off at 10-1, and she was a $265,000 purchase at last year's OBS March sale of 2-year-olds in training.

That combination makes her one of the most interesting fillies in the race. She has already shown she can win decisively on the Santa Anita hillside, and the Senorita gives her a chance to turn that into a campaign-defining rebound after the Keeneland run. If she reasserts herself here, she will no longer be just a filly with early promise; she will look like a graded player with a real summer path.

The fillies who can change the picture

Dreaming of Alys adds another layer to the race because she is making her 3-year-old debut after winning last year's Del Mar Juvenile Fillies Turf. That kind of return can tell you a lot about how a stable sees the rest of the season, especially in a race where timing and turf adaptability matter as much as raw speed.

Bella Lyra is the other runner with immediate intrigue. She is a German-bred European import making her U.S. debut after seven starts in Great Britain, and that profile can be dangerous in a downhill turf race where European seasoning often translates quickly if the trip works out.

The result is a field that feels built for advancement. Light Won Up is trying to turn a good win and a bad beat into a forward step, Dreaming of Alys is trying to convert proven juvenile turf talent into a 3-year-old launch, and Bella Lyra is the sort of import who can instantly reshape the outlook if she adapts fast.

Actionable takeaways

• Best next-race candidate: Trendsetter. His Lexington upset and 85 Beyer say the form is real, and a top-three Peter Pan finish could put Belmont back on the table.

• Most dangerous upset threat: Bella Lyra. A European turf import in a hillside sprint can be easy to underestimate, especially in a 10-filly field.

• The performance that will matter beyond this weekend: Light Won Up. She has already shown graded upside, and a strong Senorita would make her one of the most relevant turf fillies in the division.

The larger story is bigger than two races. The Peter Pan is functioning as a final New York gateway before the calendar shifts, and the Senorita is the kind of coast-to-coast filly test that can turn an auction buy or an import into a name that carries through the summer. When Arcangelo once turned the Peter Pan into a Belmont and Travers launchpad, it proved this race can still shape the season, and Trendsetter now has a chance to try to write a similar next chapter.