Talkin skips Kentucky Derby, points to Preakness for better fit

Talkin’s third-place finish in the Blue Grass Stakes did more than earn Kentucky Derby points. It shifted the horse’s path, and maybe the whole Baltimore picture, because Danny Gargan is now pointing the colt straight to the Preakness Stakes instead of Churchill Downs.

That call looks less like a consolation prize than a fit decision. Gargan said Talkin is a smaller horse and may be better suited to the Preakness at 1 3/16 miles than the Derby’s 1 1/4 miles. Even with enough qualifying points from the Blue Grass, the Tampa Bay Derby and the Champagne Stakes to make the Derby gate, the plan still leaned toward Laurel Park. That matters. For horseplayers, it tells you Talkin is being aimed where his barn thinks he can actually run his race, not where the headlines are loudest.

The Preakness is the 151st running and is scheduled for May 16 at Laurel Park because of the current Pimlico redevelopment situation. The race stays at 1 3/16 miles, and that shorter, tighter setup is exactly why Talkin now reads like a likely starter for the Middle Jewel. Gargan knows the trip, too. He won his first Triple Crown race with Dornoch in the 2024 Belmont Stakes, and now he has another colt headed toward a classic target in Maryland.

The next name in the picture is The Hell We Did, who finished second in the Grade 3 Lexington Stakes behind Trendsetter. That run gave him a real Baltimore case because it was his first try around two turns, and he handled it well enough to stay in the conversation as a possible starter. He also brings pedigree punch as a half brother to 2024 Saudi Cup winner Senor Buscador, which is the kind of background that can turn a price horse into a live one if the distance keeps helping.

Trendsetter, meanwhile, is the long-shot of the group, but only because the paperwork is working against him. He won the Lexington on April 11 at Keeneland in a 32-1 upset, but he was not nominated to the Triple Crown. That means he would need to be supplemented to get into the Preakness field. If that happens, Saturday’s graded races could wind up changing the Baltimore race in a bigger way than the Derby trail ever did.