Reds' Early Spring Fight for Fifth Starter Shapes Triple-A Louisville Depth

The fifth starter in Cincinnati’s rotation is up for grabs among Chase Burns, Rhett Lowder, Brandon Williamson and Julian Aguiar, a competition that will have direct Triple-A Louisville implications if any contender lands in a reserve role. With Hunter Greene, Andrew Abbott, Nick Lodolo and Brady Singer locked into the top four, who loses out will shape roster construction for both Opening Day and the club’s depth picture into May.

Mark Sheldon summarized the situation bluntly: "These might be considered good problems to have for the Reds." The urgency is practical. Cincinnati used 12 different starters in 2025, including openers, and Brady Singer was the only starter who began and finished the season in the rotation without an injured list stint. Manager Francona emphasized the balancing act, saying, "We always want the best team Opening Day. Everybody does. Nick [Krall, president of baseball operations] is really good about this, keeping track of, 'Hey, come May, you've got to have somebody there [who is available].' So we just have to balance it."

Early spring work offered tangible impressions. During live batting practice sessions, both Chase Burns and Rhett Lowder each threw the equivalent of two innings and "they looked strong." Brandon Williamson and Julian Aguiar remain part of the short list competing in Cactus League and camp sessions for the job that sits behind Greene, Abbott, Lodolo and Singer.

Burns merits a deep inspection because of his 2025 trajectory and pitch usage trends. He moved through High-A Dayton, Double-A Chattanooga, made two Triple-A starts for Louisville, and appeared in 15 games with Cincinnati in 2025, six of those in relief. In his two Triple-A starts he threw 22 changeups out of 174 total pitches, a 13% changeup rate. At the major league level his changeup topped 10% only twice, peaking at 12% against the Nationals, and in one outing he used it exactly 10%. In his start at Colorado he threw 95 pitches with no changeups, and in four of his six relief outings to end the year, including the playoffs, he did not throw a single changeup. Curve usage also shifted: Burns threw 14 curveballs in his two Louisville starts, 12 in his first five starts with Cincinnati, and none in his final nine big league appearances. Redlegnation recommends monitoring Burns in Louisville as a long reliever, opener and spot starter while slowly building pitch counts and innings.

Roster strategy remains unsettled. Cincinnati will need starting-pitcher depth at Triple-A Louisville and could deploy a non-winning candidate as a long reliever, opener, spot starter, or consider a bullpen conversion, but "It's still too early to tell." Innings limits could be a factor for all four candidates because of their age and/or injury history, and Nick Krall is tracking availability into the season as Francona noted.

Camp versatility affects bench construction as well. Eugenio Suárez took third base reps, likely prepping to be a designated hitter and first baseman during the season while readying for the World Baseball Classic; he worked alongside regular third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes. Spencer Steer did infield work at second with Matt McLain and is slated to see action in left field and first base during spring.

The timeline to watch is clear: who wins the fifth starter job establishes Opening Day depth, but how the Reds manage innings limits and the workload of pitchers like Burns will determine Triple-A Louisville’s role players and available arms by May.