U.S. ethanol production rises in late May as inventories fall

U.S. ethanol production rose 1.7% to 1.108 million barrels a day in the week ended May 29, while inventories fell to 1,033,452 thousand gallons, a firmer close to May that kept attention on whether summer demand would hold.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration said production was up from 1.089 million barrels a day the week ended May 22 and well above the 1.009 million barrel-a-day pace reported for the week ended April 24. The agency released the weekly ethanol report on June 3 and set the next update for June 10.

The late-May gain extended a rebound that had already shown up earlier in the month. Output was 1.017 million barrels a day the week ended May 1, then 1.082 million barrels a day the week ended May 8 and 1.111 million barrels a day the week ended May 15. Brownfield Ag News said the mid-May pace was the highest in five weeks, as seasonal maintenance wound down and margins and demand expectations improved.

The Renewable Fuels Association’s weekly supply-and-demand table showed refiner and blender inputs at 899 thousand gallons a day for the week ended May 29, a sign that blending demand remained present even as inventories eased. That stock draw mattered because February’s monthly RFA data showed ethanol stocks at 1,163,316 thousand gallons, a much heavier level than the late-May reading.

The broader balance still points to a market that is sensitive to both domestic blending and exports. RFA monthly data showed May 2025 ethanol production at 1,348,116 thousand gallons and exports at 185,220 thousand gallons, underscoring the size of the overseas outlet when U.S. supply runs heavy. The U.S. Energy Information Administration now expects ethanol production to average 1.1 million barrels a day in 2026, with consumption at 940,000 barrels a day.

That forecast leaves little room for sustained weakness in plant runs if corn demand, fuel blending and exports all stay firm. The June 10 report will show whether the late-May production uptick was the start of a steadier summer pattern or only a brief weekly pop in an uneven market.