U.S. jet fuel production hits record as prices surge after Strait closure

U.S. jet fuel production surged past 2.0 million barrels a day in the four-week average ending May 1, up from 1.7 million b/d on Feb. 28, as refiners chased margins after the Strait of Hormuz closed. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said refiners maximized jet fuel output by running plants above average rates and shifting yields toward jet fuel, while much of the extra volume flowed overseas because domestic inventories stayed above average.

The price move was just as sharp. U.S. Gulf Coast jet fuel spot prices averaged $3.91 a gallon from March through May, about double the start-of-year level, while the Gulf Coast crack spread averaged $1.25 a gallon, up from $0.42 at the start of 2026. The EIA said jet fuel prices in Amsterdam, Rotterdam and Antwerp, as well as Singapore, also roughly doubled over the same period, reinforcing the incentive for refiners to push more barrels into the jet pool.

That pull showed up in trade flows. The EIA said U.S. jet fuel exports hit record highs in April and May, and Bloomberg said shipments reached an all-time high of 455,000 barrels a day in the week ending May 8. The agency said premium prices in Europe and Asia in March and April pulled cargoes away from the Middle East after the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz at the end of February tightened supply expectations across the market.

Europe’s response underlined how fast higher fossil fuel prices can reshape aviation economics. S&P Global said the CIF Northwest European jet cargo flat price averaged $1,521 a metric ton in March, about 97% above February, as airlines faced the squeeze from elevated fuel costs. Lufthansa Group responded with 20,000 flight cuts between May and October, a move it said would reduce fuel demand by about 40,000 metric tons.

For biofuels, the episode is a stress test. Conventional refiners were able to lift jet output quickly, redirect cargoes and capture higher margins within weeks, a flexibility that SAF producers still struggle to match at scale. The swing in prices and exports showed how quickly fossil supply can respond when the market tightens, and how steep the competitive bar remains for aviation decarbonisation.