Dollar General shoppers stay cautious, keep hunting for low prices

Dollar General stores are still getting shoppers through the door, but Deloitte’s latest consumer read points to a customer who is shopping with a tighter grip on every dollar. The firm said its financial well-being index slipped to 101.1 in March 2026, not because households were in immediate distress, but because they were less optimistic about what comes next.

That caution showed up in the price expectations. Deloitte said 82% of respondents expected higher gas prices in March, up 35 points from the prior month, while 74% expected higher grocery prices, up 9 points. Discretionary spending intentions partially recovered in April after a sharp March drop, but nondiscretionary spending eased for a third straight month from January’s peak. Groceries were the exception, rebounding in April after dipping in March, a sign that shoppers are still buying essentials but are being far more selective about where and how they spend.

For Dollar General associates, that is the kind of shift that shows up one basket at a time. Customers are likely to keep hunting for low prices on food, paper goods and other staples, but they will also press harder on every price change, promotion and out-of-stock item. Associates on the floor should expect more questions about whether a name-brand item is worth the extra cents, whether a markdown is real value and whether a cheaper substitute is sitting on another peg or endcap. In stores already stretched by staffing pressure, those conversations can slow down a register line or an aisle reset in a hurry.

The broader inflation backdrop helps explain why the mood has stayed defensive. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics said consumer prices rose 0.9% in March and 3.3% over the prior 12 months, with gasoline up 21.2% for the month and energy up 10.9%. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York said March gas-price growth expectations reached their highest level since March 2022, while median one-year inflation expectations climbed to 3.4%. Even when households are still spending, they are doing it with more scrutiny and less patience.

Dollar General’s own results show why the company still sees value as a live selling point. The Goodlettsville, Tennessee-based chain said fiscal 2025 fourth-quarter same-store sales rose 4.3%, driven by 2.6% customer traffic growth and 1.7% growth in average transaction amount. Full-year net sales reached $42.7 billion and operating profit hit $2.2 billion. Todd Vasos said the company’s value-and-convenience mix remains especially relevant in the rural communities it serves, and management’s fiscal 2026 same-store sales outlook of 2.2% to 2.7% suggests it expects demand to continue, but at a more measured pace.