Goldman lifts aluminium and gold forecasts on supply risks

Goldman Sachs lifted its aluminium and gold forecasts, pointing to supply risks that could keep both metals volatile into next year. The bank raised its average London Metal Exchange aluminium price forecast for the third quarter of 2026 to $3,300 a metric ton and its full-year 2027 estimate to $2,950, while holding to a gold target of $4,900 an ounce by December 2026.

The aluminium call matters most for the bank’s commodities desks because Goldman is not treating the move as a simple bullish reset. The new note expects Middle East production to recover slowly even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens after the Iran-related deal, because damaged smelter capacity will need to be repaired and restarted in stages. That leaves Goldman expecting a larger aluminium deficit in 2026 and a smaller surplus in 2027, with two-sided risk depending on how fast regional capacity comes back online.

That shift extends a view Goldman had already sharpened in March, when it lifted its second-quarter 2026 aluminium forecast to $3,200 a tonne from $3,100 after Middle East disruptions and the shutdown of the Mozal smelter in Mozambique. The bank also cut about 850,000 tonnes from its 2026 aluminium supply forecast then. Aluminium was trading around $3,398.50 on June 19.

Goldman’s gold target sits in the same framework, with central-bank buying, Western exchange-traded fund inflows and rates expectations all feeding into the firm’s model. In October 2025, Goldman put the upside case for gold on strong ETF inflows and likely central-bank demand, with risks skewed higher because private-sector diversification could push ETF holdings above rates-implied estimates. The World Gold Council’s first-quarter 2026 gold demand reached 1,231 tonnes, with value hitting a record $193 billion, and its 2026 central-bank survey drew 76 responses, the highest participation on record.