Goldman Sachs Analysts See Early Signs Crypto Prices Have Bottomed

Goldman Sachs analyst James Yaro signaled this week that cryptocurrency prices may have found a cyclical bottom, telling clients that bitcoin "may have found a cyclical bottom following a months-long correction that wiped roughly 45% off bitcoin's October 2025 peak." The note, first reported by CNBC, landed across Goldman's trading desks on Wednesday and spread quickly through finance circles by Thursday morning.

Bitcoin hit an all-time high of over $126,000 in October 2025 and has since traded in the $69,000–$71,000 range as of March 26, 2026. The pullback forced a reckoning for anyone who bought near the top, whether retail or institutional, but Yaro's framing was careful: possibility, not confirmation. He said "prices may have troughed, but volumes could fall somewhat further, although the impact appears manageable," quantifying that risk as potentially reducing 2026 revenue by 2% and profits by 4%, while noting that "trough crypto volumes typically last for a median of 3 months before meaningfully rebounding."

That caveat matters for Goldman's own trading revenue. Crypto volumes are a meaningful fee source for the equities and structured products desks that have built out digital-asset infrastructure over the past two years. A further volume dip, even a temporary one, compresses the revenue line that helps fund end-of-year bonuses on those desks.

On the market-structure side, Goldman's note pointed to conditions that typically signal late-stage selling exhaustion. Liquidity conditions are gradually improving, although they remain uneven across venues, and the bank observed that selling pressure has eased across major exchanges and derivatives platforms. Low open interest in perpetual swaps and negative funding rates, two signals that leveraged short positions have been flushed, were cited as constructive for medium- and longer-term investors. Goldman also pointed to early signs of institutional investors cautiously re-entering the market, though ETF flows continue to show mixed trends, with some funds recording inflows and others still seeing redemptions.

Goldman also flagged "attractive setups" in crypto-linked equities, likely including exchanges such as Coinbase and Robinhood, mining companies, and blockchain infrastructure plays. That's a more actionable call for Goldman's own analysts and clients than a spot bitcoin view, and it tracks with the bank's January 2026 upgrade of Coinbase to "Buy," citing resilient retail trading activity and regulatory progress. Coinbase has an attractive growth opportunity in crypto derivatives trading, its subscription and services business, and new products like prediction markets, equities trading, banking, and wealth, the note said; the firm did lower its price target on Robinhood and Coinbase, but both still reflect upside from current levels.

Goldman is not alone in calling a tentative bottom, though others are considerably more bullish. Bernstein analysts declared bitcoin's cyclical low confirmed and reiterated a $150,000 year-end 2026 price target, citing strong ETF flows and growing corporate treasury demand. The broader market correction has been driven by delayed Federal Reserve rate cuts, geopolitical pressures including U.S.-Iran tensions, persistent inflation, and softer ETF inflows earlier in 2026, though some of those headwinds have started to ease, with potential Fed cuts expected later in the year.

Macro risk hasn't disappeared. Goldman Sachs raised its odds of the U.S. sliding into a recession to 30%, its third upward revision this year, a reminder that the same institution calling a crypto floor is simultaneously warning of broader economic deterioration. Goldman also reduced some crypto ETF exposure in late 2025 during the rout, showing it adjusts positions alongside changing conditions. As of its most recent 13F filing, total crypto ETF exposure stood at roughly $2.36 billion across four different assets as of year-end 2025.

The cultural signal may be as significant as the market call. CEO David Solomon holds "very, very limited" amounts of bitcoin, he told an audience at the World Liberty Forum at Mar-a-Lago in Florida, an event hosted by executives including Eric Trump and Donald Trump Jr. In 2024, he said he believed bitcoin is a speculative asset without a real use case. He added that he doesn't see himself as a forecaster but rather as an observer of crypto, implying that he believes it is important to understand it as the technology continues to intersect with finance. For a firm whose partners spent years keeping crypto at arm's length, the CEO owning any amount at all, however small, is a shift worth noting.

What hasn't shifted is Goldman's fundamental caution about timing. Yaro's note used conditional language throughout, and the firm's economists are separately raising recession probabilities. The floor near $70,000 is a thesis, not a guarantee, and on the trading floor, the distinction rarely goes unnoticed.