Goldman Sachs cuts 2026 IPO count forecast, keeps $160 billion outlook

Goldman Sachs kept its $160 billion IPO outlook for 2026, but lowered its deal-count forecast to about 100 from 120. The message to bankers is clear: the market still has appetite, but it is asking for better companies, sharper stories and cleaner timing.

That is the difference between a healthy pipeline and an easy one. Goldman’s April 25 note said the average 2026 IPO was up 19% on its first trading day, roughly in line with long-run patterns, while the first three weeks of the second quarter produced even stronger average first-day gains of 27% across eight deals. In other words, the market is rewarding offerings that arrive with the right valuation, the right sector and the right window. For equity capital markets bankers, syndicate desks and sector coverage teams, that means more pressure to prove why a company should go now, not later.

The bank also said 53 companies had filed to go public year to date, more than double the comparable period last year. But the backlog is not evenly distributed. Software made up about 20% of the 2025 IPO backlog in Goldman’s note, and the bank flagged the recent selloff in software stocks as a risk because that same sector still represents a sizable share of the names waiting to come out. Goldman’s view is that software and healthcare should lead the count, while late-stage tech and AI companies are likely to drive most of the proceeds.

That split helps explain why Goldman can cut the number of deals without cutting the dollar forecast. A handful of bigger offerings can still keep headline proceeds high even if the calendar gets thinner. Goldman had already framed 2026 as a potential breakout year, with SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic among the marquee private companies that could set the tone. It had also said 12 firms had already raised about $5 billion through IPOs in 2026, including Forgent Power and Eikon Therapeutics, showing that the market was active before the latest forecast change.

For Goldman employees, the practical impact is inside the funnel. More selective IPO conditions mean harder pitches, tighter quality thresholds and more internal debate over which clients can withstand a volatile tape. For wealth management and sales teams, a busier IPO market can create new client conversations and trading activity, but only if the offerings hold up after the first print. Goldman’s message is not that IPOs are back in a broad, frictionless way. It is that the market is open enough for the best companies to get done, and tough enough to reject the rest.