Goldman Sachs raises yuan forecast as China exports strengthen

Goldman Sachs lifted its yuan forecast and, in the process, gave a clearer read on how it sees China risk inside the firm’s cross-border business: not as a one-way bet on weakness, but as a currency that could stay firmer if exports keep holding up and diplomatic pressure stays contained. The bank now sees the yuan at 6.80 per dollar in three months, 6.70 in six months and 6.50 in 12 months, a stronger call than its prior 6.85, 6.80 and 6.70 targets.

That revision mattered because Goldman’s view was not just about the next print on an FX screen. Bloomberg reported that Goldman judged the yuan to be more than 20% undervalued against the U.S. dollar, and said the currency still traded well below levels justified by China’s export strength and external surplus. Kamakshya Trivedi’s team framed the move as a longer-lasting gain rather than a short-term bounce, which can matter for desks weighing hedges, carry trades and China exposure across cash, derivatives and structured products.

Reuters said the yuan had already been grinding higher this year, rising nearly 3% against the dollar to 6.8040 per dollar on Monday, while gaining about 2.6% against major trading partners. The backdrop was China’s export data. Reuters reported that April export growth accelerated as factories raced to fill overseas orders, and the Associated Press said exports rose 14.1% year over year despite lingering tariffs and cost pressures tied to the Iran war.

Goldman’s optimism also sat inside a broader market re-rating. HSBC raised its year-end yuan forecast to 6.65 from 6.75, while Deutsche Bank moved its end-2026 baseline to 6.55 from 6.70. That makes the Goldman call look less like an isolated house view and more like a wider judgment that China’s external accounts and export machine have held up better than many expected.

For Goldman employees, the practical takeaway is bigger than the currency level itself. A firmer yuan can change how clients think about export margins, offshore financing and the timing of capital deployment into China or China-linked supply chains. It can also translate into more hedging flow, more earnings-translation questions from corporates and more careful positioning by investors who still want China exposure without taking full directional risk. In a year shaped by geopolitical uncertainty and higher energy costs, Goldman’s yuan call pointed to where it sees near-term opportunity, and where the reputational and policy risk around China still has to be managed trade by trade.