Goldman Sachs says North Asia leads Asia on AI and memory boom

Goldman Sachs is treating Asia less like one trade and more like two very different labor and client assignments, and the side with the momentum is North Asia. In Goldman Sachs Research’s May 19 Exchanges discussion, Tim Moe said AI was the main force pushing North Asian markets ahead, while their relative insulation from the Middle East energy shock helped keep them in front. For people inside Goldman, that split matters because it changes where the firm has to put its best research calls, its fastest trading response and its strongest sector coverage.

The sharpest edge of that call is Korea. On May 21, Goldman raised its 12-month KOSPI target to 9,000 from 8,000 and lifted its MSCI Asia Pacific ex-Japan target to 990 from 920. The bank said Korea could deliver 300% earnings growth this year, calling that the strongest forecast for any Asian market ever except for the 1999 rebound after the Asian Financial Crisis. Goldman also described South Korea as its “top market” in Asia and its “highest conviction view” in the region, which is the kind of language that usually concentrates attention, headcount and internal air cover around one pocket of the market.

Moe’s explanation was built around semiconductors, not a generic “Asia is back” story. He said the semiconductor memory cycle could last three to five years, with record memory shortages, hyperscaler cloud demand and AI-related compute needs driving prices higher. That has direct implications for how Goldman deploys people across equity research, sales, trading, ECM and sector banking. If the memory cycle stays hot, more client calls, more idea generation and more pitch work will follow the chips and supply chain story, not a broad Asia basket.

The regional map is also getting more selective. CNBC reported that Moe said tech-oriented stocks make up around 80% of Taiwan’s index, 60% of South Korea’s and 30% of Japan’s, which helps explain why those markets have been more sensitive to the AI trade. He also said Indonesia and South Asia were down 25% because they have less tech exposure and more energy vulnerability, sharpening the divide between the north and south of the region. That is exactly the sort of split that can shape internal mobility, since analysts and associates who understand semis, cloud capex and power constraints will be more valuable than generalists chasing a broad regional bounce.

The flow data points the same way. An Associated Press report in February said hedge funds bought a record amount of Asian stocks, with inflows concentrated in Korea, Taiwan and China. For Goldman, that kind of positioning can change where the firm prioritizes coverage, which desks get the most client urgency and which teams are most likely to see the next promotion round tied to the market that is actually moving.