Goldman Sachs sees gold at $5,400 by end-2026, warns of volatility

Goldman Sachs is sticking with a $5,400-an-ounce gold target for the end of 2026, even after the metal suffered its biggest monthly drop since June 2013 in March. The tension in the call is the point: Goldman still sees a powerful endgame for gold, but it does not expect a straight-line rally.

The bank lifted its end-2026 forecast to $5,400 from $4,900 in January, building on a prior call that gold would reach $4,000 by mid-2026 from $3,772 on Sept. 24, 2025. That upgrade came as spot gold hit a record $4,887.82 an ounce on Jan. 22, 2026, leaving prices unusually close to the newer target even before the latest volatility hit. Goldman said gold had already risen more than 40% in 2025 and was on pace for a third straight year of double-digit gains.

The case rests on two forces Goldman expects to keep working together: Federal Reserve rate cuts and continued buying by central banks. In its January note, Goldman estimated central-bank purchases would average about 60 tonnes a month in 2026 and said that buying would account for roughly 14 percentage points of its projected price rise by December 2026. The bank also sees mine supply growing by only about 1%, which leaves limited new metal to absorb a pick-up in demand.

That long-term view has put Goldman near the bullish end of Wall Street’s range, though not alone. A Reuters factbox in January showed Morgan Stanley at $4,500 by mid-2026, Citi at $5,000, JPMorgan at an average of $5,055 an ounce by the fourth quarter of 2026, HSBC at $4,450 by year-end 2026, Bank of America at $5,000 and UBS at $4,700 if real rates fall into negative territory. Goldman’s target sits above most of those calls, but the broader message across the Street is similar: lower real rates and reserve buying still matter.

The short-term caution is what clients need to watch. More recent reporting pointed to weaker central-bank buying, slowing ETF inflows in the first quarter of 2026 and geopolitical disruptions around the Hormuz Strait as near-term risks. Goldman has argued that reserve diversification is sticky, because some buyers are hedging long-term fiscal and policy risks, not just reacting to headlines. If that buying continues while the Fed eases, the $5,400 call can still work. If it fades, gold can still be a useful hedge, but the path there looks far rougher for traders, rates-sensitive portfolios and safe-haven allocators trying to time the next move.