Goldman says narrow earnings revisions are driving S&P 500 record highs

A narrow slice of analyst earnings revisions has done most of the work behind the S&P 500’s push to fresh records, raising the question of how durable the rally really is. Goldman Sachs strategist Ben Snider said the market’s climb has been powered by pockets of strength rather than a broad upgrade across the index, a setup that leaves the benchmark leaning on a few clear winners.

Goldman said consensus earnings estimates for 2026 and 2027 were already about 4% above January levels, but the lift has not been evenly shared. Coverage this week said Exxon Mobil and Micron Technology accounted for a disproportionate share of the improvement, while the median S&P 500 company has seen little or no upward revision to 2026 earnings. That concentration matters because a rally driven by fewer names can look healthier at the index level than it does underneath, especially for portfolio managers deciding whether to chase the benchmark or stay selective.

The backdrop has still been strong enough to push the S&P 500 to repeated highs. The index closed at 7,022.95 on April 15, then reached an intraday high of 7,126.06 on April 17. Goldman raised its year-end 2026 target to 7,600 on April 2, backing that call with an expectation of 12% earnings growth and a broader recovery. In Goldman’s February outlook, Snider had already projected double-digit gains for the S&P 500 in 2026, arguing that elevated valuations could be offset by solid economic growth and continued Federal Reserve support.

For Goldman employees, the message is less about whether the market is up and more about what is driving the move. Snider, who became Goldman’s chief U.S. equity strategist in September 2025 after succeeding David Kostin, is now the voice clients hear when they ask whether this is a market for buying the index or hunting for a handful of earnings winners. That affects the work of research analysts building sector calls, sales teams fielding client questions on concentration risk, and traders positioning around a market that may still be moving on stock-picking rather than broad macro conviction.

It also has practical implications for the wider franchise. A rally led by selective earnings strength can keep research central to client conversations, but it can also make dealmakers and capital-markets teams more cautious if risk appetite depends on a few large-cap names continuing to deliver. For Goldman, the record highs are real, but Snider’s warning suggests the foundation is narrower than the headline suggests.