Goldman staff could see bigger bonuses as dealmaking and trading rebound

Goldman Sachs staff are heading into the next bonus cycle with a narrower question than “will pay go up?” The better question is who gets the lift, because the latest outlook points to a bigger reward for dealmakers and traders than for the rest of the firm.

Wall Street bonuses were projected to rise for a third straight year, with advisers on mergers and acquisitions and share offerings expected to see incentive pay up as much as 20%, according to Johnson Associates. Traders were also positioned to benefit from volatile markets and active client flow, while the overall industry picture was described as flat to slightly positive for 2026. That is a sharp reminder that compensation is still stratified by franchise, not shared evenly across the floor.

At Goldman, the split lines up with the business mix. The firm reported first-quarter 2026 net revenues of $17.23 billion and net earnings of $5.63 billion on April 13, with CEO David Solomon saying results were very strong even as markets turned more volatile. Investment banking fees jumped 48% to $2.84 billion, equities revenue rose 27% to $5.33 billion on record trading, and fixed income revenue fell 10% to $4.01 billion. For bankers in advisory and underwriting, and for desks tied to equities flow, those numbers point to a stronger case for higher compensation than for groups riding weaker fixed income conditions.

Goldman’s own disclosures explain why those pockets matter. Its 2024 annual report said the firm had two interconnected franchises, Global Banking & Markets and Asset & Wealth Management, and noted that AWM includes a top 5 alternatives business. Its 2025 annual report said GBM was poised to capitalize on an upswing in strategic activity and strong client flows across FICC and Equities. In practical terms, that means the biggest upside should stay concentrated with M&A bankers, equity capital markets teams, and traders, while slower-moving support functions and businesses with less direct revenue leverage are less likely to see the same payoff.

The backdrop is already firmer than a year ago. Overall Wall Street bonuses jumped 9% in 2025 to a record $49.2 billion, according to New York State Comptroller Tom DiNapoli’s March estimate, and Goldman, JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America had already boosted banker and trader bonus pools by at least 10% for that year. Alan Johnson said, “The biggest risk continues to be geopolitics,” a warning that fits a pay cycle still driven by deal flow, volatility and the businesses most exposed to both.