Consumer confidence edges up, Home Depot watches cautious shoppers

Consumer confidence nudged up to 92.8 in April, but the better headline still came with a warning label for Home Depot stores: shoppers were a little more upbeat, yet far from ready to spend freely. The Conference Board’s latest reading rose 0.6 points from March, while the Present Situation Index slipped to 123.8 and the Expectations Index climbed to 72.2, a split that points to cautious optimism rather than a broad buying surge.

That matters on the sales floor, at the Pro desk and in online order flows, where a modest lift in sentiment can still leave customers weighing every dollar. The survey covered April 1 through April 22 and captured a temporary ceasefire in the Middle East, the rebound in U.S. equities and a rise in gasoline prices. Dana M. Peterson, the group’s chief economist, said consumer confidence was “overall little changed” and added that rising gasoline prices were a material concern. The labor-market differential improved to +7.5%, but net views of current business conditions fell to +4.1%, a mix that suggests customers may feel steadier about jobs than about making a large project decision.

For Home Depot associates, that usually translates into more comparison shopping, more delayed upgrades and more questions about whether a job can be split into stages. A customer who might have been ready for a full remodel six months ago may now start with repair, maintenance or one room at a time, especially if fuel costs and household budgets are still top of mind. That puts extra weight on value messaging, bundle suggestions and clear product advice that helps a cautious shopper see a payoff before committing to a bigger basket.

The backdrop inside Home Depot has been cautious too. The company reported fiscal 2025 sales of $164.7 billion, up 3.2% from fiscal 2024, with comparable sales up 0.3% for the year and 0.5% in the U.S. Fourth-quarter sales fell to $38.2 billion from the prior year quarter, which had an extra week, and chief executive Ted Decker said the results reflected “ongoing consumer uncertainty and pressure in housing.” Home Depot also raised its quarterly dividend 1.3% to $2.33 per share and guided fiscal 2026 for total sales growth of about 2.5% to 4.5% and comparable sales growth of flat to 2%.

That makes April’s 92.8 reading less a signal of open-wallet enthusiasm than a reminder of the job ahead. Home Depot, which describes itself as the world’s largest home improvement retailer, still depends on converting selective traffic into completed projects, and in this market the winning aisle is the one that turns caution into a workable plan.