Home Depot CFO says uncertainty delays big projects as sales soften

Customers are still coming into Home Depot, but many are choosing the fix-it-now purchase instead of the full remodel. Chief Financial Officer Richard McPhail said at JPMorgan’s 12th Annual Retail Round Up Forum on April 9 that uncertainty was the biggest reason shoppers were holding back on larger home improvement jobs.

McPhail said the demand backdrop softened through 2025 as consumer confidence drifted lower amid inflation concerns, geopolitical events and fears of job loss. Even so, Home Depot posted its fifth consecutive quarter of positive comparable sales in the United States in the fourth quarter of 2025, a sign that smaller projects and urgent repairs kept traffic moving even as bigger discretionary work stayed on the sidelines.

For associates on the floor, the split matters. McPhail said customers cited uncertainty as the main factor keeping them from taking on bigger jobs. That helps explain why repair, maintenance and replacement purchases have been steadier than full kitchen refreshes, flooring projects or lighting upgrades. It also means departments tied to large-ticket work may feel the slowdown first, even when the store still sees steady activity in aisles selling parts, tools and replacement materials.

McPhail tied that caution to a housing market that remains stuck. He said private residential fixed investment turned negative year over year in 2025 after slowing in 2024, a sign that the broader backdrop for remodeling and repair has weakened. He also described U.S. housing activity as frozen, noting that existing home sales and turnover have stayed unusually depressed. The share of homes changing hands has hovered around 3 percent for roughly three years, compared with a more normal 4 percent to 5 percent range.

That matters because Home Depot’s business rises and falls with housing turnover, remodeling and repair activity. McPhail said homeowners are financially solid and their balance sheets are better than before the pandemic, but they still do not feel this is the right time for major discretionary work. For store teams, that leaves the chain leaning on the customer who has to fix something now while waiting for a stronger housing rebound to bring back bigger tickets, larger project packages and the sales lift that comes with them.