Home Depot May Get Near-Term Lift as Housing Starts Hit High

Home Depot stores could get a short burst of demand in lumber, building materials and Pro desks after U.S. single-family housing starts rose 9.7% in March to a 13-month high of 1.032 million units. The headline looks strong, and the immediate effect could be real: more framing packages, more fast-turn material orders, and more contractor traffic chasing jobs that are actually breaking ground.

The catch is the pipeline behind that number looked weaker. Total housing permits fell 10.8% in March, and single-family permits dropped 3.8% from February and 7.9% from a year earlier. That split matters on the sales floor and in the lot. Starts can create a near-term lift in demand for lumber, millwork, hardware and delivery support, but permits are the better warning sign for what comes next. When permits soften, the work that feeds stores later can thin out even if the current month looks hot.

Builder sentiment also stayed subdued. The National Association of Home Builders said confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes fell four points to 34 in April, the lowest level since September 2025 and the 24th straight reading below 50. NAHB said 62% of builders reported suppliers had raised building material costs because of higher fuel prices, and 70% said they were having trouble pricing homes because of uncertainty about material costs. Higher mortgage rates and tariff pressure on imported goods such as lumber and vanity cabinets are still working against a clean rebound.

For Home Depot, that makes the next few weeks less about a broad housing boom than about managing a split signal. The company said fiscal fourth-quarter sales were $38.2 billion, down 3.8% from a year earlier, while comparable U.S. sales rose 0.3%. Its annual report says the company’s growth strategy is to drive the core and culture and win with the Pro, which is exactly where this data matters most. A stronger starts number can help the stores that feed builders and remodelers; weaker permits suggest managers should stay tight on inventory, watch local demand carefully, and keep Pro relationships close.

The broader lesson is simple: a 13-month high in starts is a lift, not proof of sustained momentum. The month’s construction activity can help today’s sales, but permits, builder confidence and cost pressure will decide whether that strength lasts into the next buying cycle.