IRS sets 2026 wind credit values, shaping KPMG project finance

Small changes in IRS guidance can move real money in renewable deals, and KPMG’s energy, infrastructure and tax-credit teams now have a fresh set of numbers to fold into their models. The 2026 wind reference price came in at 3.17 cents per kilowatt hour, with a 2.0570 inflation adjustment factor, and the wind phaseout under section 45(b)(1) did not apply because that price did not exceed the statute’s threshold.

The Treasury Department and the Internal Revenue Service published the 2026 notice in the Federal Register on June 1, 2026, as Notice 2026-10906. It applies to calendar-year 2026 sales of kilowatt hours produced in the United States or a U.S. possession from qualified energy resources. Charles Hyde of CC:ECE:2 in Washington, D.C., was listed as the IRS contact. The notice also said reference prices for closed-loop biomass, open-loop biomass, geothermal, solar, municipal solid waste, qualified hydropower and marine and hydrokinetic renewable energy had not yet been determined for 2026.

For KPMG professionals advising developers, investors and lenders, those figures are not bookkeeping trivia. They feed directly into cash-flow assumptions, partnership allocations, tax equity pricing, transferability analysis and elective payment decisions. In a project finance market where margins are thin and underwriting depends on how many dollars a credit will actually produce, the difference between a 2025 wind reference price of 3.1 cents and a 2026 price of 3.17 cents can change the economics of a deal, especially when financing commitments and go or no-go calls are being made around a tight timeline.

The notice also sits inside a bigger shift that KPMG tax teams have been tracking since section 45 was amended by the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022. The IRS now describes the successor Clean Electricity Production Credit as a tech-neutral incentive that starts at 0.3 cents per kilowatt hour, with a 1.5-cent rate for certain small facilities, and with direct payment or transfer available. That means renewable tax work is no longer just about credit eligibility, but about keeping pace with annual reference prices, inflation factors and the mechanics that turn policy into project value.

For auditors, consultants and tax advisers inside KPMG, the practical takeaway is straightforward: the 2026 numbers are live inputs for valuation work, provision support and diligence on energy assets. The notice may look routine, but in renewable project finance it helps determine who gets comfortable, who reprices, and which projects stay alive long enough to reach construction.