U.S. finance leaders grow less optimistic about the economy

Finance leaders are getting more cautious about the U.S. economy, but they are not turning pessimistic about their own firms. In the second-quarter AICPA and CIMA Economic Outlook Survey, just 32% of 212 CEOs, CFOs and controllers said they were optimistic about the U.S. economy over the next 12 months, down from 39% in the prior quarter. Optimism about their own organizations edged up to 49% from 47%, while concern about inflation jumped to 81% from 56%.

That split matters for KPMG’s client teams because it points to a market that is likely to reward measurable payback rather than broad-based expansion. The survey, conducted from May 5 to May 27, 2026, found that employee and benefit costs, inflation, and rising materials, supplies and equipment costs were moving back to the top of executives’ worries. When finance leaders feel uneasy about the macro picture but still confident in their own businesses, they usually keep funding operational efficiency, process redesign, AI, working-capital discipline and tightly targeted growth projects. For auditors, tax professionals and consultants at KPMG, that is a signal that clients may keep buying transformation work if it protects margins, sharpens forecasting or reduces manual effort.

The same pattern has shown up in KPMG’s own CEO research. In the firm’s March 10, 2026 U.S. CEO Outlook Pulse Survey, 86% of CEOs said they were confident in their industry growth and 83% in their company growth, even as they remained wary of the economy. KPMG said those leaders were still pressing ahead with AI investments and dealmaking, using technology to navigate uncertainty and operational pressure. KPMG’s 2025 Global CEO Outlook pointed in the same direction, finding that 79% of CEOs were optimistic about their own organizations’ prospects even as confidence in the global economy fell sharply.

For large employers like KPMG, that combination of caution and confidence is likely to translate into tighter staffing discipline rather than a broad hiring surge. The likely playbook is selective recruitment in growth areas, closer scrutiny of utilization, and more pressure to show productivity gains from AI and process redesign. For staff, that can mean more demand for people who can deliver faster, more technical work and less tolerance for work that does not clearly move the needle. In a year when macro sentiment is cooling, the firms that can tie audit, tax and advisory services to resilience are the ones most likely to win.